Laura’s Track Shifted Slightly and That Likely Saved Lake Charles and Port Arthur From a Storm Surge Catastrophe

Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, where a storm surge of just over 9 feet was measured. That's the highest known storm surge for Laura at this time until a comprehensive post-storm survey is completed.

The worst storm surge in a hurricane is typically located in areas just east of where landfall occurs. In Laura's case, that means the big push of Gulf of Mexico water moved onto the coast from Cameron to some distance east of there, as depicted by the white arrows in the image below.

No measurements are available at this time to know how high the storm surge might have reached in this sparsely-populated area of Cameron and Vermilion Parishes.

The track of Laura, while producing destructive winds in the hurricane's eyewall, may have been just far enough east to spare the Lake Charles metro area a much worse fate from surge flooding. That's because the track likely prevented a big south-to-north push of Gulf of Mexico water from heading northward tens of miles into Calcasieu Lake and then the Calcasieu River, which flows toward Lake Charles.

West to southwest winds to the south of Laura's center did pile water from Lake Charles into previously dry parts of downtown Lake Charles several hours after landfall early Thursday morning, according to storm chaser Chris Jackson. A peak storm surge of around 4.65 feet was measured by a gauge by Lake Charles' downtown.

Laura also had a somewhat smaller area of hurricane and tropical storm-force winds compared to Rita (2005) and Ike (2008). Larger hurricanes tend to generate a larger, more widespread storm surge than their smaller counterparts.

Port Arthur was also spared from a storm surge catastrophe for the same reason as Lake Charles. The track was too far east, which allowed winds there to blow from a northerly or westerly direction during the height of the storm, or off of land instead of the Gulf of Mexico.

The bottom line is that, while Laura has caused severe impacts, the storm surge could have been much worse in higher-populated areas like Lake Charles and Port Arthur if the Category 4 hurricane tracked just to the west of those cities.

Massive evacuations in these cities might have been a hassle for some residents, but they are a necessity since there are usually subtle differences in a hurricane's future track even less even than 24 hours before landfall. That can mean the difference between having a potentially deadly storm surge or escaping the worst.

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