TWC Hurricane Outlook Released: 2022 Atlantic Season Expected to Be Another Busy One

The outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 is calling for eight hurricanes, four of which are expected to reach at least Category 3 strength.

This is slightly higher than the 1991-2020 average of seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The outlooks cite neutral to cool El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) conditions and warmer than average water temperatures in the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic as indicators for the active hurricane season.

Dr. Todd Crawford, the author of the TWC outlook, says it can best be summarized as "active, similar to 2021, nothing like 2020." The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season had 21 named storms and seven hurricanes.

The phase of ENSO, commonly referred to as El Niño or La Niña, is one of the strongest indicators of how active a hurricane season will be this early in the year.

La Niña, or the cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific, has been in play for the better part of the last two hurricane seasons. La Niña typically enhances the amount of activity seen during hurricane season compared to its counter-phase, El Niño, which causes stronger shearing winds aloft that limit tropical storm and hurricane growth.

Klotzbach and NOAA expect a gradual warming of those waters and a slide toward neutral conditions during the peak of hurricane season in August-September-October (in orange below). NOAA is predicting a nearly 90% chance of being in either neutral or La Niña conditions during these months.

This warming will be caused by a slow weakening of the winds that have helped push warmer waters toward southeast Asia. Klotzbach says "these anomalously weak trade winds may increase anomalous [sea surface temperatures] in the short term, but we believe that the odds of a significant El Niño event for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season are quite small."

If you’re hoping for a quiet hurricane season, you should hope that this transition toward El Niño occurs with haste.

The phase of ENSO is notoriously difficult to predict during the spring months since ENSO conditions can rapidly change in the spring. Additional details will become available over the next few months.

Crawford said recent atmospheric blocking over the North Atlantic favors additional warming relative to average over the next few months. This warming could be additionally amplified if the blocking sticks around into the summer.

Water temperatures are still below 80 degrees despite being above average over the vast majority of the basin. This is typical for April. Hurricane season starts when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. But water temperatures being above-average now means they could reach that threshold earlier in the year across more of the basin – a bit of a headstart that could boost early-season storm numbers.

While some cooling has taken place in the eastern Atlantic in the last two months, that area is also the last region that sees tropical activity in the basin.

"Overall, the current SST anomaly pattern correlates relatively well with what is typically seen in active Atlantic hurricane seasons," said Klotzbach.

How Will This Season Compare to 2021?

The outlook compiled a list of hurricane seasons that could be similar to what we might expect this season and it happens to include 2021, which had 21 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes – Category 3 status or higher.

Other seasons include 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008 and 2012. The average activity for those six seasons was 8.5 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

This list was built based on years with similar ENSO conditions in March and similar forecasts for ENSO during the season.

This outlook serves as a reminder that hurricane season will quickly be upon us. Of the last 10 seasons, eight have started before June 1, including every season dating to 2015.

If you’re along the East or Gulf coasts, the time to be ready for tropical weather is now. Information about hurricane preparedness can be found here.

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