Annual Peak Of Atlantic Hurricane Season Arrives This Weekend

This seasonal peak is also when conditions are most optimal for the development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

There's an overlap of favorable factors in early to mid-September, including ocean water reaching its highest temperature, the atmosphere's ability to generate thunderstorms hitting its peak, and hostile shearing winds declining to a minimum. A parade of disturbances known as tropical waves, which act as seeds for development and peak in July, are still numerous in September.

These overlapping favorable factors occur over a larger area of the Atlantic Basin compared to early and late in the season. So there's more real estate open for tropical development during the seasonal peak.

All of those factors lead to more named storms and hurricanes during the statistical peak of hurricane season, as shown in the graph below.

The graph indicates the number of active named storms and hurricanes on each day of the Atlantic hurricane season in the historical record.

It clearly shows the three-month period from August through October encompasses the majority of named storms (77%) and hurricanes (87%) in an average season.

It also shows a distinct peak day with the most active named storms and hurricanes – Sept. 10.

Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach said that roughly three-quarters of Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1966 have had at least one active named storm on Sept. 10. Also, half of all seasons have had at least one active hurricane on this date.

How Much Of The Season Is Left?

The 2022 season has had a slow start, especially when compared to the past two years.

There have been five named storms so far this season as of Sept. 7, including two that became hurricanes – Danielle and Earl. Before those two storms formed late last week, the season had its least active start in 30 years, and a rare August without any named storms forming.

An average hurricane season after Sept. 10 has historically produced another six named storms, including four hurricanes, two of which would reach at least Category 3 intensity.

Of course, the most important statistic is how many of these named storms and hurricanes strike land.

Later in the season, development can occur closer to land in the western Caribbean Sea, southwestern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. October 2018's devastating Category 5 Hurricane Michael was a stark recent example.

There's still a long way to go. In the past 10 years, the season's last storm fizzled as soon as Oct. 25 and as late as Dec. 7.

Now is the time to make sure you have a hurricane plan in case another storm threatens this season.

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