Hurricane Season Has Fallen Below Average By Two Metrics

Another extended quiet period may be ahead in the tropics following Hurricane Francine, as we fall below the seasonal average using two metrics commonly followed by meteorologists.

This doesn’t mean that everyone has felt the advantages of a quiet season, nor does it mean that the rest of the season will be quiet.

Here’s where we are right now:

Number of named storms now lags 1991-2020 average by two storms. By September 16th, we would typically be on the ninth storm of the season, which is the “I” storm. This year, we're still waiting for the eighth storm, Helene, to form.

There are no immediate signs that we will see a new named storm over the next week, so it appears that this departure from average will grow as we move through the end of September.

The picture for hurricanes, including those that reached Category 3 or higher, is more in line with climatology. This year, we’ve gotten four hurricanes and one major hurricane, which is exactly where we should be for Sept. 17.

Meteorologists often use the ACE metric instead of tropical storm or hurricane numbers because it denotes an overall look at the season, adding the longevity and strength of storms to those numbers that are typically used.

Beryl produced more than one-quarter of the average for entire season’s ACE, and more ACE than at least one entire hurricane season.

Fewer storms overall, but vast majority have impacted land. A hurricane season is often judged based on how many storms make landfall. For instance, many would say 2005 and 1992 were both active seasons because of hurricanes Katrina and Andrew. But the 1992 hurricane season saw just six named storms.

This year, though, six of the seven named storms have hit land, including three hurricane landfalls in the United States. Two of those – Beryl and Francine – produced at least $7.5 billion in losses, while the toll from Debby is uncertain.

Plenty of season left to go. Typically, after Sept. 17, we would have five more storms, three more hurricanes and two more major hurricanes by the end of the season, using the 1991-2020 average.

Recently, more impactful, well-known hurricanes such as Matthew, Maria, Michael and Ian have wreaked damage to the United States from late September to December.

Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.