Warm Water Isn't Only Hurricane Intensity Factor | Weather.com
Advertisement
Advertisement

Warm Water Isn't The Sole Hurricane Intensification Factor. These Ingredients Matter, Too.

Play

21 Hurricane Names, One Newcomer This Season

Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.

W​arm water is the most commonly mentioned factor when it comes to hurricane intensification, but there are other ingredients that matter too, and sometimes they all compete.

H​ere's your handy guide to what makes some hurricanes intensify, while others struggle even when warm waters are abundant.

1. First, let's not discount the warm water factor. The warmer the water, the more heat and moisture can be pumped into a hurricane, allowing it to have a greater chance of intensification.

One thing about this factor is that it's not just about how warm the water is on the immediate surface of the ocean. It also matters how deep that warmth extends, which is measured by an ingredient called ocean heat content.

As long as other factors are favorable (which we'll discuss next), the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the more powerful a hurricane can become.

An example of high ocean heat content in the Caribbean during September 2024.

2. W​ind shear can be a double-edged sword. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with height. It's often a hostile factor that can tilt or even rip apart tropical storms and hurricanes.

S​o, you could have a storm over a region with very high ocean heat content, but if it's getting hammered by wind shear for an extended amount of time, then it might struggle to intensify or even meet its demise.

B​ut sometimes, wind shear close to a storm that would normally be unfavorable can actually have the opposite effect if it's in the right location. We've seen several cases in the past where wind shear was located just far enough west of a hurricane to not disrupt its core, but instead help ventilate the storm and allow it to intensify.

In 2018, Hurricane Michael's rapid intensification into a Category 5 before making landfall along the Florida Panhandle was aided by that type of setup.

Above is an example of unfavorable wind shear, where strong upper-level winds rip apart a storm.
Advertisement

3. D​ry air intrusions can disrupt a hurricane's core. Dry, sinking air disrupts tropical storms and hurricanes by suppressing thunderstorms and strengthening downdrafts of storms that are able to form. That prevents thunderstorms from persisting long enough near a surface low-pressure center in order to keep the storm healthy.

W​e saw dry air become a speed bump for the intensification of what would become Hurricane Francine in early September 2024. For a time, dry air infiltrated the tropical storm's center, preventing it from significant intensification.

E​ventually, Francine fended off this dry air, allowing it to intensify into a strong Category 2 before landfall in Louisiana.

So on occasion, dry air can be an obstacle for only a period of time during a hurricane's life cycle, while other times it can lead to a storm's demise.

Water vapor satellite of Francine on Sept. 9, 2024, showing dry air infiltrated the tropical storm's center.

4. L​and interaction can disrupt hurricanes, at least for a brief time. Hurricanes get their fuel from the oceans, so when they track over land, it triggers weakening because it's cut off from the warm, moist air source.

T​he weakening can be minimal to major, depending on the length of time spent crossing a land mass.

Whether the land has tall mountains or not also plays a role. For example, the mountainous terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean can inflict a great amount of weakening, and some past storms have even fallen completely apart.

Meanwhile, flatter terrain like in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula can cause a storm to weaken, but sometimes that's just temporary.

I​n early July 2024, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Mexico's Yucatan as a Category 2. It weakened to a tropical storm once it reached the Gulf of Mexico, but then intensified into hurricane just before striking Texas.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

Advertisement