What Is A 'Potential Tropical Cyclone' Exactly?

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Tropical Storm Milton, which formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or early Monday. The storm is expected to pose a major hurricane threat to Florida by midweek, just over a week after Helene pushed through the region.

The National Hurricane Center says that "there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday."

Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Know your evacuation zone now, and plan for additional power outages in the days to come.

(​MAPS TRACKER: Track the storm here)

Where the storm is currently: Thunderstorm activity is getting better organized several hundred miles south of Brownsville at this time. It is expected to move eastward or northeastward toward southwest or central Florida, then into the Atlantic.

The storm is expected to intensify into a hurricane this weekend and could rapidly intensify into the week ahead.

Much of the current computer guidance suggests that a stronger hurricane threat for Florida is growing, and the NHC is currently forecasting the system to approach Florida as a Category 3+ hurricane.

Milton may pass well south of the Florida Big Bend and is not expected to bring as much surge as Helene brought to that region. That said, some areas that saw storm surge from Helene very well could see storm surge from this system, especially from Pinellas County to Naples. There is an outside shot that storm surge could be higher than Helene brought in a location or two, particularly further south.

I​mpacts Forecast

Potential Flooding: R​ainfall is expected to arrive well in advance of this system's arrival due to a frontal boundary sagging into the region. Several different bursts of rainfall can be expected in Florida as soon as Sunday. Flood watches are already in place for much of the peninsula.

With the system itself, rainfall in Florida is one impact we expect to see over the next week and it could lead to flooding in some spots. Much of the peninsula should see at least 3 inches of rain, but some spots could see closer to a foot of rainfall.

T​he heaviest rain is expected to arrive by Tuesday or Wednesday on the Florida peninsula.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Wind Damage: M​ost of the new computer guidance suggests that a Category 3 hurricane will develop, though some models have a stronger storm than this. Residents should prepare as if a Category 4 or 5 hurricane is anticipated.

T​his system has the potential to bring damaging winds to the west-central or southwest Florida coast Tuesday night or on Wednesday, but exactly where those winds will occur and how strong they will be remains a question.

A​ny hurricane preparations or recovery and rebuilding efforts should be finished by Tuesday evening. After that time, those efforts could be dangerous.

How much damage occurs depends on how strong the system gets. While water temperatures are plenty warm for development, w​ind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico could be one obstacle to the intensification of Milton. Wind shear could begin weakening this system near Florida over the Atlantic, but lets not count on this happening.

R​ip Currents: Strong onshore winds along Florida's Atlantic Coast will create the threat of rip currents through the weekend and into early week. These rip currents may occur without rainfall.

A​long the Gulf Coast, a rip current threat could develop by early week from Tampa southward.

T​he western Caribbean and Gulf are typical areas for tropical development in October. Go to this link to see how hurricane season usually changes in the new month.

C​heck back with us at weather.com for updates in the coming days as the details come more into focus.