Hurricane Central

Tropical Storm Milton Forms, Poses Major Hurricane Threat To Florida

At a Glance

This tropical storm is expected to intensify over the next few days.
Heavy rainfall will be a widespread threat for Florida.
Some parts of the Florida Gulf Coast will likely receive strong winds and some storm surge.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to allow rapid intensification.

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Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and now poses a major hurricane threat to Florida just over a week after Helene pushed through the region.

In their first advisory on the new system, the National Hurricane Center said that "there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday."

Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday.

(MAPS TRACKER: Track the storm here)

New storm forms: Shower and thunderstorm activity is getting better organized several hundred miles south of Brownsville at this time. It is expected to move eastward or northeastward toward southwest or central Florida, then into the Atlantic.

The storm is expected to intensify this weekend and could rapidly intensify into the week ahead.

Much of the current computer guidance suggests that a stronger hurricane threat for Florida is growing and the NHC is currently forecasting the system to approach Florida as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

Milton is likely to pass well south of the Florida Big Bend and is not expected to bring as much surge as Helene brought. That said, some areas that saw storm surge from Helene very well could see storm surge from this system, especially from Pinellas County to Naples. There is an outside shot that storm surge could be higher than Helene brought in a location or two, particularly further south.

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Impacts Forecast

Potential Flooding: Rainfall is expected to arrive well in advance of this system's arrival due to a frontal boundary sagging into the region. Several different bursts of rainfall can be expected in Florida as soon as Sunday.

With the system itself, rainfall in Florida is one impact we expect to see over the next week and it could lead to flooding in some spots. Much of the peninsula should see at least 3 inches of rain, but some spots could see closer to a foot of rainfall.

The heaviest rain is expected to arrive by Tuesday or Wednesday on the Florida peninsula.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)

Wind Damage: Most of the new computer guidance suggests that a Category 2 or 3 hurricane could develop.

This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to the west-central or southwest Florida coast Tuesday night or on Wednesday, but exactly where those winds will occur and how strong they will be remains a question.

Any hurricane preparations or recovery and rebuilding efforts should be finished by Tuesday evening. After that time, those efforts could be dangerous.

How much damage occurs depends on how strong the system gets. While water temperatures are plenty warm for development, wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico could be one obstacle to the intensification of Milton. Wind shear could limit how fast this system develops.

Forecast Sustained Winds
(This should be treated as a broad outlook for wind strength late Tuesday. Winds could increase or decrease before they reach the coast. )

Rip Currents: Strong onshore winds along Florida's Atlantic Coast will create the threat of rip currents through the weekend and into early week. These rip currents may occur without rainfall.

Along the Gulf Coast, a rip current threat could develop by early week from Tampa southward.

The western Caribbean and Gulf are typical areas for tropical development in October. Go to this link to see how hurricane season usually changes in the new month.

Check back with us at weather.com for updates in the coming days as the details come more into focus.