Hurricane Milton May Weaken, Wobble And Widen; Why These Terms May Be Deceiving

As Milton inches closer to Florida, there are some terms and phrases you will hear that can be confusing. It’s important to understand what these phrases and terminology mean when it comes to powerful storms and their impacts. For example, Milton may wobble, weaken and grow in size, which can seem counterintuitive. Here’s what you need to know.

(MAPS TRACKER: Spaghetti Models And More)

“Weakening” does NOT mean a weak storm

Milton is a dangerous storm any way you slice it. It explosively intensified into one of the fastest storms on record and, at its peak, was one of the most powerful storms on record. However, some weakening in the storm is forecast. Milton will encounter higher wind shear and drier air as it approaches land, both of which can weaken storms.

It’s important to note that even with some weakening, Milton will still be incredibly powerful. If Tampa gets a direct hit, this could quite possibly be the strongest storm to strike that area in more than 100 years. Even with weakening, there will be places that see up to 15 feet of storm surge and winds topping 120 miles per hour.

“Weakening” does not mean weak.

Milton will grow larger as the storm gets closer to Florida. What does this mean?

Hurricane Milton will continue to grow in size as it makes its trek across the Gulf of Mexico. This is not the strength of the storm, but the width of the storm. Because Milton is so powerful, it will go through what we call an eyewall replacement cycle, which is basically when a strong storm reorganizes. Each time this happens, the storm widens, growing larger.

“These eyewall replacement cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands,” explained the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in their forecast discussion.

“The official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time [Milton] makes landfall,” according to the NHC.

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At the time this was written Tuesday morning, Milton’s tropical storm force winds extended roughly 100 miles from the center, and could be as far as 200 miles from the center by the time Milton makes landfall.

This means a larger area in Milton’s path could see wind damage.

Milton will wobble. What does this mean?

A storm as strong as Milton cannot stay on a straight and narrow course. It’s too powerful, and powerful storms tend to wobble. While these wobbles may seem small on a map, they can make all the difference as to where landfall occurs.

As Hurricane Milton approaches land, a tiny wobble to the south will determine which areas see the highest surge. Locations just to the south of the storm’s center will see the highest surge.

Also, a larger storm will be able to push more water onshore. Therefore, with Milton growing in size, storm surge will continue to be one of the hurricane's biggest threats.