What November Means For Hurricane Season

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N​ovember is the Atlantic hurricane season's final month, but that doesn't mean there can't be impactful storms, as has happened in recent years.

T​he average stats: In the satellite era - since 1966 - November has produced an average of one storm every 1 to 2 years and one hurricane every 2 to 3 years.

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I​t typically accounts for only about 5 percent of a total hurricane season's activity - using a metric called the ACE index - according to data compiled by Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

W​hat's happened the past few years: No November storms or hurricanes formed in 2023.

B​ut in 2022, Tropical Storm Lisa formed near the end of October, then became a Cat. 1 hurricane before it washed ashore in Belize. Martin was a central Atlantic Cat. 1 hurricane, and Nicole was an unusually late Florida Cat. 1 hurricane landfall on Nov. 10.

W​here November development typically happens: If a storm does develop in November, it usually does so in one of three places:

• The western Caribbean Sea
• T​he southwestern Atlantic Ocean
• T​he central Atlantic Ocean

T​hese are the few areas in November where wind shear is not always too strong, intrusions of cooler, drier air haven't yet made progress and water temperatures are still warm enough for development.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute details forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

M​ainland U.S. concern low: As you might be able to tell from the map above, the chance of a U.S. hurricane strike in November is very low.

O​f the 287 hurricanes that made a mainland U.S. landfall in NOAA's database, only four of those did so in November:

• Nicole in Florida (Cat. 1) on Nov. 10, 2022
• K​ate in the Florida Panhandle (Cat. 2) on Nov. 21, 1985 (record latest in season U.S. hurricane landfall)
• A​ South Florida Cat. 2 on Nov. 4, 1935
• The "Expedition Hurricane" in eastern North Carolina (Cat. 1) on Nov. 2, 1861.

S​ignificant Caribbean impacts recently: More often, it's parts of the Caribbean and Central America that have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.

S​ome of the recent ones are plotted on the map below.

T​hose include the double pummeling of Nicaragua by two Cat. 4 hurricanes in 13 days in Nov. 2020, Eta, then Iota.

Among H​urricane Otto's superlatives in late November 2016, it was the farthest south a hurricane made landfall in Central America, and the only known hurricane to move over Costa Rica.

A pair of Cat. 4 hurricanes - Michelle in 2001 and Lenny in 1999 - clobbered western Cuba and the northern Leeward Islands, respectively, to an extent that their names were retired from future use.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.