Tropical Storm Sara Is A Dangerous Central America Flood Threat

Tropical Storm Sara is hugging the coast of Honduras and may unleash catastrophic flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America through the weekend, but is no longer a Gulf of Mexico threat.

Latest status: Tropical Storm Sara became the 18th storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season early Thursday afternoon and is centered just off the coast of northern Honduras. Its forward speed is also slowing down, as expected.

W​atches and warnings issued: Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for coastal parts of Central America, as depicted in the map below. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, while a warning means those conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Strength, track in Caribbean: Sara is forecast to be at tropical storm intensity as it slowly tracks near the coast of Honduras the next few days. It's then expected to move into Belize, then eastern Mexico Sunday into Monday.

Sara's lack of a core and proximity to land should keep Sara's intensity relatively in check.

One danger, regardless: Sara's movement will be slow for a few days while near Central America Friday into this weekend. This crawl, regardless of its wind intensity, could produce prolific rainfall with potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Up to 30 inches of rain could fall over parts of northern Honduras. Other parts of Central America from eastern Mexico to Nicaragua could see up to 15 inches of rainfall from Sara.

What about the Gulf next week: It now appears Sara's land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula means it isn't likely to survive that land journey.

S​ome of Sara's remnant moisture could eventually be drawn ahead of a cold front and could boost rainfall in parts of the Southeast, including Florida, around the middle of next week.

Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates to this forecast in the days ahead.

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Typical November Tropical Activity

Hurricane season winds down during November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and one hurricane every two to three years.

More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America have taken hard hits from November hurricanes.

If a storm does develop in November, it's usually in the western Caribbean Sea or either the southwestern or central Atlantic.

This is because environmental factors are better suited for development. Wind shear is normally pretty low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it this far south and water temperatures are still fairly warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.