Hurricane Season Ramps Up Now — What To Know

Atlantic hurricane season has just entered what's historically been its busiest and most damaging stretch, and the final outlook just issued by Colorado State University is giving a glimpse of what to expect in the coming months.

Updated Outlook By The Numbers

• Led by Phil Klotzbach, CSU's tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 16 total named storms, including the four that have already formed this season: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter.
• That means 12 additional storms are predicted through the rest of summer and fall, with 8 of them expected to intensify into hurricanes. CSU says 3 of those hurricanes could become Category 3 or stronger, or so-called major hurricanes.
• The number of tropical storms and hurricanes predicted is the same as the July outlook, which is when numbers were dropped by one each compared to earlier outlooks from June and April.
• The new outlook remains slightly above the 30-year average number for both hurricanes and storms, but below the tally of 18 storms, 11 hurricanes and five Category 3-plus hurricanes in 2024. CSU added that confidence in the August forecast is lower-than-normal.

The Season So Far

• The number of named storms this season has been a bit above the average pace. Tropical Storm Dexter formed on Aug. 3, which is 12 days ahead of when the average fourth storm has historically arrived, based on the 1991-2020 average.
• However, by another metric called the ACE Index the season's activity was just 24% of the average to date as of Aug. 5, according to CSU. Instead of just tallying up the number of storms, the index sums up how long storms last and how strong they become. Since this season's storms have been short-lived and weak, the ACE index is trailing well behind pace for now.
• Despite the weak nature of this year's storms so far, they have been impactful. Tropical Storm Barry's remnants played a partial role in fueling the deadly July Fourth Texas flood. Just two days later, Tropical Storm Chantal brought 4 to 12 inches of rain to North Carolina, triggering damaging, deadly floods in a narrow strip between Raleigh and Greensboro.

Forecast Factors Ahead

• The primary reason for the slightly more active than average outlook is plenty of warm water fuel in the Atlantic to aid in the formation and strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes. "Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal, although not as warm as they were last year at this time," Klotzbach wrote.
• Higher-than-average Caribbean wind shear observed in June and July is the top uncertain factor. This change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere can be a hostile factor that tropical storms and hurricanes sometimes battle. The outlook said increased amounts of Caribbean wind shear in June and July have historically been correlated with less active hurricane seasons.
• Another factor weighed in the forecast is the lack of El Niño conditions expected for the peak of the season. This warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean alters global wind patterns in a way that contributes to less active hurricane seasons. Instead, neutral conditions are in place, which means water temperature in the equatorial Pacific are near average. Neutral conditions have historically tipped the scales toward a more hospitable atmosphere for Atlantic tropical storms to form, although La Niña conditions (cooler equatorial Pacific waters) are usually most favorable.

(MORE: Wind Shear Is One Of 4 Hurricane Nemeses)

Outlook Doesn't Measure A Season's Impacts

• What this hurricane season outlook cannot tell you is whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.
• A season with fewer storms or hurricanes can still deliver the one storm that makes a season destructive or devastating. In 1992, Andrew delivered a catastrophic Category 5 strike on South Florida in what would have been an otherwise forgettable season with just seven storms.
• You can also see the opposite case. The 2010 season was very active, with 19 storms, 12 hurricanes and five Category 3-plus hurricanes. All 12 hurricanes missed the mainland U.S., although Hurricane Earl did pass near enough to produce storm surge flooding in North Carolina's Outer Banks and downed trees and power lines in eastern Massachusetts.

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

Weather in your inbox

Forecast Location

Sign Up

By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.