Erin Doesn’t Need To Make Landfall To Impact US

Hurricane Erin has been fluctuating in intensity as the storm undergoes structural changes this weekend, though it will remain a formidable major hurricane through the weekend.

The storm is passing north of the Northern Leeward Islands, taking advantage of warm waters and weak wind shear conditions, and it will continue to bring rain, gusty winds and high surf to parts of the Caribbean before pivoting northward and passing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast in the week ahead.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters found sustained winds at 160 mph Saturday morning, making the storm a monster Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The first Category 3+ hurricane of the season typically forms on September 1, so Erin is slightly ahead of schedule.

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Interests along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should continue to monitor the forecast. A significant rip current threat is expected in the week ahead from Florida to Massachusetts.

(MORE: Erin Maps Tracker - Spaghetti Models, Forecasts, More)

Watches And Warnings

While Erin's center is passing north of the Greater Antilles, it is tracking close enough for at least some tropical storm force gusts in some areas.

See the map below for the latest tropical alerts in the Caribbean.

Path, Intensity Forecast

Erin weakened slightly on Saturday after reaching Category 5 intensity thanks to an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The storm is expected to continue to experience fluctuations in intensity this weekend, but it will remain a major hurricane into next week.

Erin is expected to turn toward the west-northwest into Sunday as it travels through warm water and low wind shear conditions north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but then, as the hurricane moves away from Puerto Rico, it should hit worsening environmental conditions. Beginning by Monday, a slow weakening trend will ensue as the hurricane turns northward.

Fluctuations in intensity will continue this weekend.

Later in the upcoming week, Erin is expected to pass between North Carolina and Bermuda. Exactly where this happens remains uncertain, but Erin is expected to eventually turn northeastward to the north of Bermuda.

Potential Impacts

-Caribbean: In addition to high surf and dangerous rip currents, bands of heavy rain containing gusty winds will lash the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday. This could lead to local flash flooding and landslides where bands of heavy rain persist, particularly over mountainous terrain. Up to 8 inches of rain is possible.

Life-threatening surf and rip currents are also likely across the Bahamas.

-Bermuda, U.S. East Coast: By Monday, Erin will be moving more to the north between a developing break in high pressure. This will occur while Erin is growing dramatically in size. Between Saturday and Wednesday, Hurricane Erin will double or triple in size.

This change will help the hurricane generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast for several days in the week ahead.

There is a high chance of rip currents from Florida to Massachusetts during much of the upcoming week. Of all hurricane hazards, 16% of all fatalities come from rip currents and rough seas. Please stay out of the Atlantic waters in the week ahead.

The probability of a landfall from Erin along the U.S. East Coast is very low at this time. However, interests along the East Coast should continue to monitor this system for possible changes.

Interests in Bermuda should also continue to follow Erin's forecast closely since its eventual turn toward the north and northeast might take it close to the archipelago next week. And parts of Atlantic Canada — particularly Newfoundland — should also follow this forecast closely, as Erin could end up tracking close to some of those areas late in the week ahead.

Erin's Explosive Intensification

Meteorologists first began watching the area of instability that eventually formed Hurricane Erin several days before the storm was named Monday of this past week.

The system remained a tropical storm as it traveled westward across the Atlantic, weakening slightly mid-week as it battled cooler waters.

Thanks to warmer waters in the western Atlantic, Erin began a period of explosive rapid intensification starting on Friday, going from a tropical storm to Category 5 in just under 30 hours, and from a Category 3 to a Category 5 in just under 6 hours.

Erin has also joined a rare group of only five hurricanes that have wind speeds of at least 145 mph by August 16 since 1970, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach. Erin is the first Category 5 hurricane since Milton and Beryl in 2024.

Erin began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday, setting off a period of fluctuation in intensity and bringing the storm back to Category 4 intensity by Saturday evening.

While Erin has been skirting around islands in the Caribbean, a wind gust of 57 mph was recorded on the island Tortola in the British Virgin Islands Saturday evening, but sustained tropical-storm-force winds have remained to the north of the islands so far.

Check back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates as the forecast comes into focus.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.