Tropical Wave Could Be Next Tropical Depression

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is looking less likely to develop this weekend in the eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, It can pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles this week, though its future beyond that remains unclear.

Where This System Is Now

A cluster of thunderstorms — known as Invest 91L — is moving westward between Africa and the Lesser Antilles in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. This storm is over 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands.

(MORE: What Is An Invest?)

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These "tropical waves" are important because they are often the seeds of future tropical storms during hurricane season.

When Development Could Happen

This tropical wave will continue to move generally to the west over the next several days.

This system is battling pockets of dry, stable air in the eastern Atlantic, which is a nemesis of tropical systems.

Chances for development are decreasing due to the atmospheric adversity.

Assuming that this system survives across the Atlantic, models suggest the wave could track over the Lesser Antilles mid-late next week.

Check back with us at weather.com in the coming days for updates to this forecast.

More Activity Ahead

Invest 91L could mark the start of a more active period in the Atlantic Basin that could last through the rest of September.

That's when an environment more supportive of tropical development — including lower wind shear and more moist, unstable air — is expected to gradually work its way into the Atlantic Basin.

That lines up with the typical mid-September peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

So far this season, we've been pretty fortunate. We're near an average pace for both storms (six) and hurricanes (one). The season's only hurricane, so far — Erin — avoided a landfall, though it did bring flooding rain to the Leeward Islands, as well as coastal flooding, rip currents and some winds to the East Coast.

However, about 70% of the season's activity typically occurs from September onward.

Develop or refresh your hurricane plans now, while it's quiet, before a hurricane threatens.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.