Unusually Quiet For Hurricane Season Peak

Hawaii may be paradise, but like the Caribbean Sea or other areas in the tropics, hurricanes and tropical storms are a part of its history.

How Often?

On average, four to five tropical cyclones occur in the Central Pacific Ocean basin — defined as longitude between 140-180 degrees west — each year.

Since 1971 — when weather satellites began continuously covering the Central Pacific Basin — only 11 hurricanes have passed within 70 miles of the Big Island, Maui, Oahu or Kauai, according to NOAA's historical hurricane database.

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The last one to do so was Category 1 Hurricane Hone that brushed south of the Big Island in late August 2024. Hone's flooding rain damaged homes and tropical storm winds downed trees and power poles on the Big Island.

Another 17 tropical storms and 14 tropical depressions have passed within that 70-mile window of the islands since 1971.

Why So Few?

Geography is one reason this doesn't happen that often. In the vast Pacific Ocean, Hawaii's total land area is only about 6,400 square miles, the fourth-smallest U.S. state by land area, larger than only Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island. 

The other reason is where storms typically come from.

Most often, a tropical storm or hurricane will form much farther east in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, then drift westward over days, even weeks. About two-thirds of Central Pacific systems are those that drifted west from the Eastern Pacific Basin.

Once they draw closer to Hawaii, the environment usually becomes more hostile.

Dry, stable air from a nearby subtropical high usually gets ingested into the system.

Ocean currents bring cooler water from Alaska, down the Eastern Pacific Ocean along the U.S. West Coast and into the Central Pacific east of Hawaii.

And upper-level shearing winds that can tilt or rip apart a tropical storm or hurricane are often in place near or over Hawaii.

These factors tend to weaken hurricanes and tropical storms moving toward Hawaii from the east.

How Hawaii Gets Hit

The Weather Channel hurricane expert Rick Knabb — also a former deputy director at NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu — points out that there is no meteorological reason why the core of a major hurricane can't directly hit Honolulu, resulting in destructive storm surge flooding, wind damage and rainfall flooding affecting a city of over 300,000 residents.

There are two ways this can happen.

From The South

First, ocean temperatures are typically warmer the farther south you get in the northern Pacific, which means a tropical storm or hurricane moving toward Hawaii from the south would have a better chance of surviving to the islands.

Any south or southwest wind aloft would steer a hurricane toward the island chain. Also, a hurricane simply rounding the southwest side of a less expansive eastern Pacific Ocean subtropical high would put Hawaii in the crosshairs.

El Niño

El Niño allows warmer water to push farther north into the more typical east-to-west trek of tropical systems from the eastern Pacific. The warmer water also allows for more tropical system formation closer to Hawaii and across the eastern Pacific.

WLPG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry says that dating to 1950, the chance of a named storm tracking within 100 miles of the Hawaii islands during an El Niño year (35% chance) is 13 points higher than during a neutral year (22% chance).

Another side effect of El Niño is that the trade winds that sometimes trap tropical cyclones well south of the islands relax, making these lingering storms south of the islands more susceptible to be drawn northward. Of course, an El Niño does not guarantee a hurricane will impact Hawaii. 

One such hurricane formed in 1992, an El Niño year. 

The costliest hurricane in Hawaii's history, Hurricane Iniki, originated in the Eastern Pacific as Tropical Depression Eighteen-E on Sept. 5, 1992. The depression then crossed over into the Central Pacific Ocean basin to the west of 140W longitude where it became a tropical storm and eventually a powerful hurricane. Again, that track was initially well south of Hawaii before it curled north.

The island of Kauai was especially hard hit by damaging winds. Along the southern coast, many structures were wiped out by storm surge flooding and large, battering waves.

Climate Change

A warmer planet could also influence Hawaii's hurricane threat in the future.

"Storm tracks, hurricane tracks, may shift more northerly toward our region of the Central Pacific in the coming decades with the warming climate," coastal geologist with the University of Hawaii Brad Romine told Hawaii News Now.

In addition, Romine said climate change could also increase the frequency of stronger El Niños that are supportive of a greater hurricane risk in Hawaii.

Other Recent Hawaii Hurricanes And Tropical Storms

• Lane, 2018: A Category 5 hurricane that weakened rapidly as it approached Hawaii but still brought flooding to the Big Island where rainfall totals of more than 50 inches ranked the storm among the heaviest for any tropical cyclone in U.S. history.
• Darby, 2016: Darby weakened as it closed in on the island of Hawaii, but brought heavy rain and flash flooding to much of the Big Island. This was the second tropical storm landfall in the Big Island in under 2 years. 
• Iselle, 2014: Made landfall as a moderate tropical storm in far eastern Hawaii. Many spots on the eastern side of the Big Island produced more than 10 inches of rain, which induced moderate flooding. First of two landfalls in two years on the eastern shores of the Big Island. Only one of seven deadly tropical systems in Hawaii. The system caused more than $150 million in damage. 

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.