Melissa To Make Cuban Landfall Wednesday Morning

Hurricane Melissa is now moving toward Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda as a major storm with the potential to bring hurricane-force winds, heavy rain and rough seas as the storm departs Jamaica after a Category landfall there.

The devastating hurricane made landfall earlier this afternoon near New Hope, Jamaica, as a Category 5 with winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 892 mb, a historic strike that will lead to months and years of recovery. This landfall will go down in the record books as one of the strongest anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

(MORE: Track Melissa With These Maps | Live Updates)

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Happening Now

Hurricane Melissa's eye is back in the Caribbean sea between Jamaica and eastern Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane.

Weakening has begun due to interaction with the mountains of Jamaica and Cuba, the danger on the islands is far from over.

With hurricane-force winds extending up to 30 miles from the center, that means its eyewall with the most intense winds continue in parts of Jamaica.

Left For Jamaica, Haiti: A Category 5 Floodmaker, Winds Coming Down

Winds will gradually come down in the coming hours across Jamaica, but flooding could last for days.

The National Hurricane Center is warning that up to 40 inches of rain could fall in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday. Most of this rain has already fallen in those islands, but the runoff and transportation of water through rivers could take a long time.

That torrential rainfall is likely to trigger catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and Haiti, especially in hilly and mountainous terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center.

(MORE: Why Slow-Moving Storms Are The Worst)

Tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds could continue for several more hours in Jamaica. In addition to what has already occurred today, these winds are capable of "extensive infrastructural damage" including "total structural failure" as well as "long-lasting power and communication outages" that could leave communities isolated, according to the NHC.

In addition to the heavy rain, storm surge could be forced ashore by the storm's strong winds in western Jamaica and eastern Cuba through this evening.

On the western side of Jamaica, a 2 to 4 foot surge is possible near Montego Bay. Water levels from the ocean will gradually decrease this evening throughout all of Cuba.

Current Alerts

The map below shows the latest watches and warnings in effect for Melissa. In addition, a hurricane watch has been issued for Bermuda, where hurricane conditions are possible on Thursday.

A hurricane warning means hurricane-force winds are expected, and tropical-storm-force winds could persist for longer than a day, in this case.

A hurricane watch means those conditions are possible within 48 hours.

A tropical storm warning means those conditions are expected, in this case within 24 hours.

Up Next: Major Cuba Hurricane Strike, Then Bahamas, Bermuda

Next, it will push into eastern Cuba as still a major hurricane tonight or early Wednesday before quickly moving through the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Wednesday at hurricane strength.

In eastern Cuba, up to 25 inches of rain could fall through Wednesday, with potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides. And in the southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, up to 10 inches of rain could fall through Wednesday night, with flash flooding expected.

In eastern Cuba, a life-threatening storm surge of 8 to 12 feet above ground level could occur along the southeast Cuban coast with landfall.

And in the southeast Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos, a 5 to 8-foot storm surge is forecast Wednesday.

The current intensity forecast for Melissa is denoted by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale categories in the forecast path graphic below.

In eastern Cuba, tropical storm winds are expected starting this evening with hurricane-force winds arriving tonight into Wednesday morning.

And in the southeast Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos, tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday.

(MORE: Not Too Late In Season For An Intense Hurricane)

Melissa could then track close to Bermuda overnight Thursday night or early Friday morning before it heads into the North Atlantic as a post-tropical cyclone.

Melissa's History

Tropical Storm Melissa formed last Tuesday morning, the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, in the central Caribbean Sea.

Melissa was the first storm of the season to track into the Caribbean Sea. As you can see in the season-to-date tracks map below, most other storms and hurricanes have curled north of the Caribbean Sea this season.

That's due either to steering winds in the Atlantic, or hostile conditions for development in the Caribbean Sea prior to Melissa.

That's roughly on par with the average date of the 13th storm from 1991 through 2020 (Oct. 25), according to the National Hurricane Center. It's also one storm shy of the average number of storms for an entire season, 14.

However, it was almost a month later than the average fifth hurricane date of September 28.

Melissa then underwent extreme rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours from Saturday morning through last Sunday morning, feeding off the deep, warm water of the Caribbean Sea. It became the season's fifth hurricane.

It then became the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday morning as lightning lit up the hurricane's eyewall.

(MORE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think)

Melissa maintained Category 5 status for around 34 hours as it made its slow, agonizing turn northward toward Jamaica.

Melissa is the strongest tropical cyclone we've seen anywhere on Earth this year, even stronger than any western or eastern Pacific typhoon or hurricane, respectively. Its landfall intensity places it tied with the Labor Day storm in 1935 for the third most intense Atlantic Basin hurricane of all time based on pressure. The storm is tied for the second strongest storm based on winds, only behind Allen in 1980.

This is the first Category 5 landfall anywhere in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Dorian slammed the northwestern Bahamas beginning on Sept. 1, 2019.

(MORE: Melissa One Of The Strongest Storms On Record)

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates on Melissa, and elsewhere in the tropics.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.