First Major 2026 Hurricane Season Outlook Released: El Niño Likely To Reduce Activity In Caribbean, Atlantic

With less than two months left before Atlantic hurricane season begins, the first of many outlooks is here, and you might just like this one.

The first outlook: Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 13 storms, six of which will become hurricanes and two of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in its first outlook for 2026 released Thursday.

That is slightly below the 30-year average tally for both storms and hurricanes, which is 14 and seven, respectively. This is also near or slightly below the tally of 13 storms, five hurricanes and four Cat 3-plus hurricanes in 2025.

The Deciding Factors: El Niño and Atlantic SSTs. The former factor is getting a lot of buzz already this year because forecasts for it are quickly taking it into the strong category.

NOAA's monthly update assigned a roughly 50% chance this El Niño would become strong, in which ocean surface temperatures are at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average. El Niño is expected to be the dominant factor this season. More on Thursday morning's update here.

Need to catch up? Here’s what to know:

- El Niño is a warming in the Pacific Ocean that leads to weather effects around the world.

- For the Atlantic, conditions are generally less favorable for tropical storm and hurricane growth, especially in the Caribbean.

- A “super” El Niño – in other words, a strong El Niño – is increasingly likely by the peak of the season.

(MORE: Everything You Need To Know About El Niño | About Super El Niño)

Over their respective seasons, El Niño has reduced tropical activity (using Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE) by 32% and seasons declared as “super” El Niños saw activity reduced by 58%. For comparison, the CSU team is forecasting an ACE of 90 this season.

There has been a general cooling in the North Atlantic since mid-February.

Much of the western Atlantic waters are warmer than average. This gives us a mixed signal between the tropics and subtropics.

Warm waters have overcome the effects of El Niño in recent year’s past, but through early April, waters across the basin likely won’t be greatly supportive of tropical activity.

(MORE: Historic Hurricanes Have Happened During Quiet Seasons)

Besides Tropics, Other Impacts Of A Slow Season

But there is one additional benefit to a quieter hurricane season: fewer ruined trips to the tropics.

Now, don’t go buying a cruise package or a stay under a palm tree in the Caribbean just because we’re saying it is likely to be less busy.

But if you have a wedding to go to or something that somebody else booked and you can’t reschedule it, you might have to worry less this year. Still get that trip insurance.

It isn’t all fun and games though.

Given the likely lack of precipitation in the deep tropics, it is likely that air quality, Saharan dust and drought conditions could be issues as we move through the summer. Without rain to knock particles out of the air, the amount of Saharan dust is likely to be higher and last longer this year. If you’ve got allergies to that sort of thing, this is your early notice. This dust often gets pulled up into the Gulf after crossing the Atlantic and Caribbean.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.