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Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane Drought of More Than 9 Years Breaks Record

At a Glance

It's been over nine years since the last Category 5 Atlantic hurricane, a record streak.
There have been a number of strong hurricanes, including over a dozen Category 4 hurricanes.
Wind shear and/or dry air may have played roles in this streak.

The record-long streak without an Atlantic Basin Category 5 hurricane reached nine years over Labor Day weekend while Hermine was pestering the East Coast.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Since Hurricane Felix plowed into Nicaragua on Sept. 5, 2007, not one Atlantic hurricane has reached elite Category 5 status (maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher), according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University tropical scientist.

Dating to 1950, this is by far the longest such streak, topping the previous record spanning virtually the entire presidency of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, after Hurricane Allen until Hurricane Gilbert.

**Record Cat. 5-Less Atlantic Streaks**(Data: Adam Dean/The Weather Channel)
Streak Begin/End Dates	Cat. 5 Begin/End Hurricanes	Length
Sep. 4, 2007 - ??	Felix (2007) - ??	3,286 days (as of Sep. 5, 2016)
Aug. 10, 1980 - Sep. 12, 1988	Allen (1980) - Gilbert (1988)	2957 days
Aug. 25, 1992 - Oct. 25, 1998	Andrew (1992) - Mitch (1998)	2254 days
Sep. 10, 1971 - Aug. 31, 1977	Edith (1971) - Anita (1977)	2184 days
Nov. 1, 1961 - Sep. 18, 1967	Hattie (1961) - Beulah (1967)	2145.5 days

Seventy Atlantic hurricanes, from Humberto in 2007 through Hermine in 2016, have all failed to attain Category 5 status.

(MORE: Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane History)

That's not to say there haven't been strong hurricanes the past nine years.

Of those 70 hurricanes during the streak, 13 of those reached Category 4 intensity, most recently Hurricane Joaquin in early October 2015.

Tracks of 13 Atlantic hurricanes reaching Category 4 intensity during the Category 5 Atlantic hurricane drought from 2007 through 2016.

A large number of these weakened or curled north, then northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean.

However, a few of these did eventually strike land at various intensities, including a pair of 2008 Gulf Coast landfalls - Gustav and Ike, a pair of 2008 Caribbean landfalls - Omar and Paloma, as well as 2014's Gonzalo in Bermuda.

Why This Long Streak

As we discussed earlier, multi-year streaks without a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane aren't unusual.

Looking at segments where Atlantic hurricanes have reached Category 5 status, it happens most often in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or the southwest Atlantic Ocean.

Track segments (in red) of all Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin from 1924 through 2015, based on NOAA's best track database. — Segments (in red) where Atlantic hurricanes have attained Category 5 intensity from 1924-2015.

Unlike the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Basin is typically invaded by plumes of dry air from the Sahara Desert, Saharan Air Layers (SALs), that frequently squelch or put a lid on tropical cyclone intensity in the central or eastern Atlantic Ocean.

(FLASHBACK: Saharan Dust Reaches Texas Gulf Coast in July)

One other factor that likely helped keep these Atlantic hurricanes from Category 5 status was wind shear, the change in wind speed and/or direction with height.

This is an inihibiting factor for tropical cyclones in that it either tilts the core convection, dispersing the heat driving the engine of the tropical cyclone, or, if strong enough, simply blows thunderstorms away from the center of circulation.

From 2008 through 2015, wind shear, particularly the past three-plus hurricane seasons, has been greater than normal, especially near the U.S. and over the Caribbean Sea.

500 millibar zonal wind anomaly (in meters per second) during the core months of the Atlantic hurricane season (August - October) from 2008 through 2015. Positive anomalies (green, yellow, orange contours) indicate stronger west winds aloft than average, a proxy for stronger wind shear.
(NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division)

This tendency for stronger westerly winds aloft has weakened or even ripped apart several intense hurricane wanna-bes, and also helped to steer some of the Category 4 hurricanes mentioned earlier away from the U.S. coast.

Unfortunately, it doesn't take a "major" (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane to be deadly or destructive.

(MORE: 10 Reasons the U.S. Major Hurricane Drought is Misleading)

Ike, Irene, Isaac, Sandy, Arthur and Hermine were all testament to that.

For now, this is a streak we hope continues for a while.

In a roughly four-year span from September 2003-2007, eight Category 5 hurricanes ravaged the Atlantic Basin. Two of those, hurricanes Dean and Felix in 2007, made landfall at Category 5 strength.