10 Years Later, Wilma Still the Last Hurricane to Hit Florida

In 2015 Erika quickly fizzled to the south of the Sunshine State, and powerful Hurricane Joaquin stayed several hundred miles to the east as it meandered over the Bahamas.

(MORE: Hurricane Joaquin Recap)

If the drought continues through the end of 2015, it will mark 10 full hurricane seasons without a hurricane in Florida – doubling the previous record of five seasons from 1980 through 1984.

According to the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of NOAA, Florida had 114 direct hurricane landfalls between 1851 and 2014. That is an average of seven hurricanes every 10 years. However, the past 10 years have featured zero Florida hurricanes.

After back-to-back very active hurricane seasons in 2004 to 2005, including seven landfalling hurricanes and three landfalling tropical storms, tropical cyclone activity suddenly became much quieter over Florida. The last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005.

(MORE: 2005's Record-Breaking Hurricane Season)

Plenty of hurricanes have developed in the North Atlantic since Wilma. In fact, a record 64 straight hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic without any of them hitting Florida as hurricanes. Dr. Phil Klotzbach says the odds of this happening are about 1:500.

Despite the lack of hurricanes, eight tropical storms have made landfall in Florida since 2006, with Tropical Storm Andrea the most recent in 2013.

It is not just Florida that is in a hurricane drought. The U.S. in general has escaped quite a number of major hurricanes – 27 in a row have formed and either missed the U.S. entirely or made landfall below major-hurricane strength. Wilma was also the last major hurricane to strike the U.S.

(MORE: No Major Hurricane Landfall in the U.S. Since 2005)

El Niño Enhances Hurricane Drought?

The frequency of hurricanes near the U.S. mainland has been unusually low in recent years. The lack of hurricanes in 2015 was further driven by an El Niño pattern, which is expected to persist for a while.

In season with El Niño, an upper level pattern with strong wind shear dominates across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western Atlantic. Such a pattern in unfavorable for tropical development, especially around the Gulf Coast, including Florida.

Wind shear, which can tear apart the vertical structure of a hurricane, has been especially high over the past three Atlantic hurricane seasons. Although this began prior to the development of an El Niño pattern, wind shear reached record levels in 2015.

Combine this ongoing trend with long-term model indications and the Atlantic hurricane season nearing an end, and it appears unlikely that any hurricanes will impact Florida through the remainder of the year.

Late Season Hurricanes Rare for Florida

Based on past data, hurricane frequency in the Atlantic rapidly decreases through October. The Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end on November 30, and November hurricanes in the North Atlantic are relatively rare.

(MORE: Five Unforgettable November Hurricanes)

Only two hurricanes have struck Florida in November. The first was an unnamed storm that hit near Miami on Nov. 4, 1935. The second was Kate, which – interestingly – ended the previous record hurricane drought when it struck the Panhandle on Nov. 21, 1985, more than six years after David grazed the east coast of the state on Sept. 3, 1979.

Only two October hurricanes have made landfall later in the month than Wilma (Oct. 24), and those date way back to 1859 and 1921.

While this is good news for those planning late fall getaways to the Sunshine state, it is only a matter of time before a hurricane does once again target Florida.

Now is the time to prepare and get a plan into shape, before the next potential hurricane approaches.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Late Season Hurricanes