Hurricane Hermine Landfall Imminent South-Southeast of Tallahassee; Hurricane-Force Winds Impacting Coast

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Hurricane warnings continue for a swath of north Florida, extending inland to include the city of Tallahassee. This means hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph) are expected for a period of time in the warned area. Various tropical storm warnings also continue from parts of Florida to North Carolina. 

Hermine will likely become a non-tropical low by this weekend and will hover near or off the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast seaboard, potentially resulting in strong winds, coastal flooding and other impacts. A tropical storm watch is now in effect as far north as coastal parts of New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland as well as the Virginia Tidewater since the low may still have significant impacts. For more details on what may happen in the Northeast, see this link.

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Current Status

Hurricane Hermine was centered about 30 miles south-southeast of Tallahassee, Florida, as of 1 a.m. Friday Morning. 

Hermine will be the state's first hurricane landfall since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Winds in the 1 a.m. hour at Tallahassee were gusting to 64 mph and to 47 mph in Perry, Florida. 

Recent Gusts:

•  79 mph was reported at an elevation of 115 feet south of Apalachicola with sustained winds of 61 mph late Thursday
• 76 mph at C-Tower, south of St. George Island, Thursday evening
• 75 mph early Thursday evening near Indian Shores Beach in western Pinellas County
• 67 mph in Keaton Beach, Florida 
• 62 mph at St. Petersburg's Albert Whitted Airport and near Clearwater Beach on Thursday evening
• 53 mph in Apalachicola
• 52 mph occurred at Clearwater Beach later Thursday evening, and a 51 mph gust was measured at Cedar Key.

30-40 mph gusts extended as far south as Naples, Florida. These winds prompted the closure of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.

A broad swath of heavy rain is slowly marching toward the Gulf Coast and Florida west coast as Hermine pushes north. 

(INTERACTIVE MAP: Where the Heavy Rain is Now)

Infrared satellite imagery, scatterometer data and observations from the Hurricane Hunters show Hermine is continuing to organize, but much of the heavy rainfall is on the east side of the system closer to the Florida panhandle. 

Thunderstorms are now sprouting around the core circulation of Hermine, a sign that it will continue to gain strength before landfall. The eye is also clearing again. 

(MORE: Five Tools to Monitor Hurricanes You May Not Have Heard Of)

This will have important implications on impacts ahead.

Forecast Track/Intensity

As the NHC forecast path shows, Hermine will continue accelerating northeast on a path toward the Florida Gulf Coast.

At this time, the NHC expects this system to be a Category 1 hurricane as it makes landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast overnight Thursday night into early Friday morning. 

Incidentally, this would snap several long-standing hurricane-less streaks, including:

• Last U.S. hurricane landfall: Arthur in the Outer Banks on July 3, 2014
• Last Gulf of Mexico hurricane: Ingrid in September 2013
• Last Florida hurricane landfall: Wilma on October 24, 2005

(MORE: Where Every U.S. Hurricane Has Hit Since 1985)

After its Gulf landfall, the storm will track through southeast Georgia and over or near the Lowcountry of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina to bring rain and wind there Friday and Saturday.

Storm Surge

The combination of heavy rainfall and storm surge around the time of the system's landfall Thursday night or early Friday could combine to produce life-threatening flooding along parts of Florida's Gulf Coast.

At Cedar Key, Florida water levels are seven feet above normal astronomical tide. Apalachicola is seeing water levels four feet higher than normal astronomical tide. These levels around Apalachee Bay will increase as Hermine approaches and as we get closer to high tide. 

Here are the potential peak water rise forecasts if it occurs at high tide:

• Destin to Indian Pass: 1 to 3 feet
• Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River: 6 to 8 feet
• Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown: 8 to 12 feet
• Yankeetown to Aripeka: 5 to 8 feet
• Aripeka to Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay: 2 to 4 feet
• Longboat Key to Bonita Beach: 1 to 3 feet
• Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia: 1 to 3 feet

(MAP: NHC Storm Surge Potential Forecast | Prototype NHC Storm Surge Watch/Warning)

Keep in mind there will also be battering waves riding atop the surge, capable of erosion and shoreline damage.

The northeast Gulf of Mexico coast from Apalachee Bay to north of St. Petersburg is prone to storm surge flooding thanks to the West Florida Shelf, where the sea floor rises significantly, allowing water driven by a tropical cyclone's winds to pile up.

While coastal flooding will be a concern along the coast from Georgia to southern North Carolina, the somewhat rapid movement of Hermine through the area should mitigate the severity of coastal flooding in these areas.

However, there will be heavy rainfall adding to that.

Rainfall Flooding

The threat of heavy rainfall is not a function of tropical cyclone intensity, but rather the system's slow movement and availability of deep, tropical moisture, as we saw with an unnamed system earlier this month triggering Louisiana's epic flooding.

Fortunately, Hermine will now accelerate to the northeast. That faster forward motion will mitigate the heavy rain threat somewhat.

However, this system will have a deep fetch of tropical moisture along its eastern and southern flanks. Therefore, bands of heavy rain could train along and south of its path over the Florida peninsula possibly into Friday. 

Then, a slug of heavy rain should also push northeast into southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas Thursday through at least early Saturday. 

The heaviest additional rainfall from this system appears to line up over parts of north Florida and southwest Georgia where many locations look primed to pick up 5 to 10 inches of total rainfall, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches possible. A broad swath of 4 to 8 inches of rain looks likely in the eastern Carolinas, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches.

Of course, where bands of heavy rain stall, over 3 inches of rain could fall in an hour or so, leading to serious flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.

(MORE: Rainfall Flood Concern for Saturated Gulf Coast)

Winds

Tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds arrived near and to the east of the system late Thursday afternoon and evening along parts of Florida's Big Bend and panhandle in the warned areas. 

In addition, tropical storm-force winds are expected inland over parts of north Florida, spreading into southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas into Friday.

In general, these winds will down trees, trigger power outages, damage mobile homes, and may lead to sporadic structural damage of homes and buildings. Trees in soil dampened from heavy rainfall are particularly susceptible to be downed by high winds.

Tornado Threat

As with most landfalling tropical cyclones, there is a threat of tornadoes embedded in rainbands.

Into the overnight hours and Friday morning, this threat is focused in parts of north Florida and south Georgia. This threat will expand northeastward as Hermine moves inland.

Due to this, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a tornado watch valid until 8 a.m. EDT for portions of northern and west central Florida, southern Georgia, and deep southern South Carolina.

(MORE: Hurricanes That Produced the Most Tornadoes)

Check back with us at weather.com for any important forecast changes in the days ahead. Now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.

Storm History

We first began tracking this system when it was known as an "Invest", an area highlighted by the National Hurricane Center for possible development, just off the west coast of Africa on August 18.

Known as "Invest-99L", this tropical wave made the long journey to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Bahamas without developing into a tropical cyclone, thanks to a combination of wind shear, dry air, and interaction with land.

Despite that, it soaked parts of the Caribbean, Bahamas and Cuba.

More than 1,700 people were displaced from their homes in the Dominican Republic due to heavy rainfall. 

Santa Lucia, Cuba picked up a whopping 12.50 inches (317.4 millimeters) of rain in 36 hours ending at 8 a.m. EDT on August 30, according to Weather Underground's director of meteorology, Dr. Jeff Masters.

Hermine finally earned its name as a tropical storm on August 31 after data collected by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicated that the system was producing tropical storm-force winds. 

Heavy rain well ahead of Hermine then soaked parts of western Florida on August 31, triggering widespread street flooding.

Sarasota, Florida, set a new calendar-day record for any August day, picking up 7.76 inches on August 31, crushing the previous record of 5.90 inches from August 14, 1928.