Severe Threat Shifts South And East Monday

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S​evere thunderstorms are once again roaring across parts of the South this weekend just a week after over 90 tornadoes touched down from Texas to South Carolina.

W​hile we are not expecting another widespread tornado outbreak this weekend, some strong to severe thunderstorms could produce wind damage and a few tornadoes from Louisiana to Mississippi, and possibly eastward to Alabama, Sunday evening.

U​nlike last week, this storm system is expected to focus its severe potential primarily along a line of severe thunderstorms. While a few isolated storms will likely form ahead of this line, the primary threat will lean toward damaging wind gusts rather than tornadoes, although a few tornadoes are possible along and ahead of that squall line.

A​ few strong storms will also be possible on Monday along the Southeast coast, including northern Florida and southern Georgia.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

T​he setup for this threat is a familiar one.

W​inter Storm Blair is speeding eastward from Oklahoma to Virginia, picking up moisture, some modest heat and humidity from the Gulf of Mexico.

A dip in the jet stream is plunging southeastward in tandem with Blair, providing robust upper-level wind support.

(​MORE: 4 Weather Stories We Typically Watch In January)

T​he limiting factor this go around – a common one in January – is the amount of instability available for storms to work with. Spots in the threat zone depicted above will only have a few hours to bake in a diminished mid-winter sun before the storms arrive. This means that efficient atmospheric simmering isn't expected, but wind shear and moisture will be plentiful.

T​his will all lead to an eastward-moving line or broken line of thunderstorms.

Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.