Storms And Heavy Rain Will Target South, Northeast | Weather.com
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Plains, South, Northeast Stuck In A Soggy And Stormy Pattern This Week

A blocking pattern will take shape this week, meaning heavy rain and possible storms will linger for a large portion of the South, Southern Plains and Northeast.

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Severe Storms And Flooding Potential Continues

This week is shaping up to be stormy and soaking across much of the Southern Plains and South this week, as the weather pattern gets ‘stuck’ over the area. This week, a blocking pattern, known as an omega block has set up across the Central U.S. and it will basically sit stationary for much of this week.

If you trace the path of the jet stream across the U.S. from the West to the East, you will trace out the Greek letter omega (Ω).

MORE: What Is An Omega Block

This configuration blocks the typical west-to-east flow of the jet stream, much like a large rock in a small stream forces the flow of water around it. That's why meteorologists call it a blocking pattern, and it can lead to pretty significant weather to millions.

This Week’s Weather

Through Sunday Evening: This blocking pattern will lead to stormy weather for western Texas and parts of New Mexico on Sunday. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats, along with very heavy rainfall at times.

There’s also a risk for severe weather in the East. Off and on storms, with heavy rain at times, will impact the Eastern Coast, from Miami to New York City. Plan on possible travel delays through the day.

Here’s where the storms are right now.

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Current Radar, Watches, Warnings
(This map shows where the rain is right now, including any watches or warnings that are issued.)
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Monday: Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures will continue in the Northeast on Monday, while storms and possible flooding will linger in the South. It’s a rinse and repeat forecast, thanks to that stubborn omega block.

There will be a few storms firing up across the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast, as rounds of scattered showers and storms continue to impact the region. Because of the relentless rain, the potential for flash flooding will remain, especially for the I-95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia.

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Thunderstorm Outlook
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)

In the South, the rain will continue for much of the South and Southern Plains. The severe threat also expands. Parts of central and west Texas will be at risk for severe weather, including mainly damaging winds and hail. Places like Fort Worth, Austin, Abilene and San Antonio will be at risk for severe weather. The threat for significant flash flooding will also be an issue, because of the rain continuing over the same areas for multiple days in a row.

Tuesday: Once again, Tuesday will bring a severe threat for Texas. Houston, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio and Waco will face the potential for severe storms. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Also, flooding will be a significant concern across the South, as days of rain heighten the flash flooding potential. The main threat area will be across northern Louisiana, however, anywhere from the Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains will be at risk.

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Excessive Rainfall Outlook
(This outlook, from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, shows the chance of heavy rain that would trigger flash flooding, in increasing categories of threat, through the period specified.)

Showers and storms will also linger in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

By the latter part of the week, this blocking pattern will eventually begin to break down, and the rain will finally push out. Make sure to check back often for updates to the forecast.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.

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