May Tornadoes Are Being Held In Check. Here's When That Could Change.

Pattern Change Could Bring Plains Tornadoes Back

May's tornado count in the U.S. has gotten off to a slow start, but that may change due to an upcoming shift in the pattern next week that could bring more severe weather to the nation's midsection.

No Major Outbreaks, Recently

While there have been severe thunderstorms scattered through parts of the South and East in recent days, thankfully, May has gotten off to a relatively slow start as far as tornadoes are concerned.

That's because the jet stream pattern that dictates the development and track of weather systems has been, well, clogged up. Stuck or slow-moving areas of low pressure can wring out thunderstorms with heavy rain, hail and strong winds. But that pattern usually doesn't generate outbreaks of stronger tornadoes.

The next few days, this "blocky" pattern where the jet stream buckles north in the West with a sluggish-moving low trapped in the Southeast will continue to keep outbreaks of severe weather off the U.S. map, though it will soak the Southeast, including Florida.

(MORE: Atmospheric River To Soak The Southeast, Including Florida)

Change Next Week

But this weather pattern is forecast to shift next week.

Instead of bulging north, a southward plunge of the jet stream will carve into the West. In this pattern, warm and humid air eventually streams north from the Gulf into the Plains under that active jet stream. It's a setup more favorable for severe thunderstorms this time of year in the nation's heartland.

One uncertain thing is how fast and strong the humid air's push northward in the Plains will be. That's because the stuck low in the Southeast mentioned earlier could temporarily squash the northward surge of this humid air from the Gulf.

(MORE: Classic Ingredients For Widespread Severe Weather)

What To Know About Next Week's Severe Threat

As usual for a forecast this far out in time, many key aspects aren't yet clear, but will likely come into focus in the coming days.

For now, here are the key points about severe weather ahead next week:

- Where: The Plains into the Midwest

- What: Threats of severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Whether there will be larger outbreaks of severe thunderstorms/tornadoes is still uncertain.

- What To Do Now: Make sure you know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikes. Have several ways of receiving watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including by smartphone (The Weather Channel app can alert you), NOAA weather radio and local media.

(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain Forecast)

Spring Tornadoes Update

As of the time this article was published, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had received only 31 reports of tornadoes during the first several days of May.

Several of these were either brief or were landspouts with little damage.

May is typically the month with the most tornadoes in the U.S. Last May, 530 tornadoes tore through the U.S., more than double the average and just shy of the May record from 2003 (542 tornadoes).

While there were several severe weather events with a couple dozen tornadoes in mid-April, the last major tornado outbreak was in early April, when 150 tornadoes were spawned in a six-day period.

Despite the recent relative tornado lull, as of May 6, the nation is on its fastest tornado reports year-to-date pace in 14 years, according to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.