Damaging Winds, Hail, Tornadoes Threaten South

A change in the jet stream means we could start a busy stretch of severe weather across the country's midsection in the upcoming week.

What To Know About This Week's Severe Threat

As usual for a forecast this far out in time, many key aspects aren't yet clear, but will likely come into focus in the coming days.

(MORE: Atmospheric River To Soak The Southeast, Including Florida)

For now, here are the key points about severe weather ahead:

- Timing: For now, the window for the best chance of severe weather is from Wednesday to Friday. Additional bouts of severe weather could then persist from this weekend into early next week.

- Where: Northern Plains on Wednesday, then spreading to parts of the Midwest Thursday, as shown in the map below. On Friday, the chance of severe weather might shift southward to the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. It's too early to lay out specific details on where the threat of severe weather might be greatest beyond late this week.

- What: Wind and hail could accompany Wednesday's storms. The greatest chance of widespread severe weather that could produce a tornado threat as well as large hail and damaging winds is Thursday.

- What To Do Now: Make sure you know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikes. Have several ways of receiving watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including by smartphone (The Weather Channel app can alert you), NOAA weather radio and local media.

(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain Forecast)

A Shift In Pattern Ahead For The Upcoming Week

Instead of bulging north as has been common over the last few days, a southward plunge of the jet stream will carve into the West by Tuesday. In this pattern, warm and humid air eventually streams north from the Gulf into the Plains under that active jet stream. It's a setup more favorable for severe thunderstorms this time of year in the nation's heartland.

One uncertain thing is how fast and strong the humid air's push northward in the Plains will be. That's because of a stuck low pressure system in the Southeast that could temporarily squash the northward surge of this humid air from the Gulf.

(MORE: Classic Ingredients For Widespread Severe Weather)

Spring Tornadoes Update

As of the time this article was published, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had received only 31 reports of tornadoes during the first several days of May.

Several of these were either brief or were landspouts with little damage.

May is typically the month with the most tornadoes in the U.S. Last May, 530 tornadoes tore through the U.S., more than double the average and just shy of the May record from 2003 (542 tornadoes).

While there were several severe weather events with a couple dozen tornadoes in mid-April, the last major tornado outbreak was in early April, when 150 tornadoes were spawned in a six-day period.

Despite the recent relative tornado lull, as of May 6, the nation is on its fastest tornado reports year-to-date pace in 14 years, according to data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.