South: Severe, Flood Threat Ahead Through Weekend

A stormy pattern will plague the South through this weekend and into early next week, producing severe weather as well as rounds of rain that might trigger localized flash flooding.

One of the drivers behind this drenching pattern is clusters of severe storms known as mesoscale convective systems. They are common in summertime and often produce severe weather and heavy rain.

(MORE: Weather 101 - Mesoscale Convective Systems)

Forecast Timing

-Friday-Friday Night: Severe storms are most likely from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, as shaded in darker orange and red below. Not every location in this area will see storms, but places that do will have a threat of damaging winds and heavy rain. The greatest chance of tornadoes and very large hail extends from the Texas Panhandle into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas.

Isolated severe storms might also develop from parts of Pennsylvania to central and southern New England.

Flash flooding from heavy rain could develop in spots from Oklahoma to the Ohio, Tennessee and mid-Mississippi valleys and interior Northeast.

-Saturday-Saturday Night: A large chunk of the South has a chance to see scattered thunderstorms as the weekend begins, so keep this in mind if you are spending time outdoors. Make sure you have a way to shelter from lightning if you hear thunder.

The area with the greatest possibility of severe storms is from North Texas and Oklahoma into parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, including Atlanta, Birmingham, Charlotte, Dallas and Memphis. Wind damage and lightning will be the greatest threats in these areas, and flash flooding is also possible in spots.

-Sunday: Severe storms will primarily focus on two separate areas.

One is near the Southeast coast to southeast Virginia, where damaging winds are a concern in the afternoon.

The other is in the Southern Plains, including northern Texas and Oklahoma, to parts of Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and the southern half of Missouri. Widespread, destructive wind gusts, large hail, flash flooding and an isolated tornado threat are all in play, including from Lubbock to Dallas-Fort Worth and Oklahoma City. This threat in the south-central states will mainly be from late afternoon through the overnight hours.

-Monday-Tuesday: We expect more rounds of storms to continue across a chunk of the South early next week, but it's a bit too early for details.

In general, the stormy weather pattern might begin to shift southward a bit, which means from now through early next week, much of the South could pick up at least an inch of rain. Multi-inch totals are possible where storms hit repeatedly or stall.

Check back to weather.com and The Weather Channel App for frequent updates as you make plans to venture out in the next few days.

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.