How a Deadly Alabama Tornado Was Spawned in an Otherwise Unspectacular Severe Weather Setup

A deadly Alabama tornado on the night of Jan. 25, 2021, didn't occur in a large outbreak of severe thunderstorms, but it was a reminder that tornadoes, even strong ones, can occur in any severe weather setup and at any time of year in the South.

The tornado tore through parts of Fultondale, Alabama, a suburb about 6 miles north of downtown Birmingham, just before 11 p.m. CST on Jan. 25, heavily damaging homes, buildings and a motel.

(MORE: News, Developments on the Alabama Tornado)

What was remarkable about this was that it happened in an otherwise unspectacular severe weather setup that generated only about 35 total reports of severe weather in the Southeast.

Most severe weather outbreaks produce hundreds of such reports.

How could such a strong and destructive "lone wolf" tornado occur in what wasn't the most prolific environment to support severe thunderstorms and tornadoes? And how could that happen in January?

January Tornadoes Are Typical in the South

Even though it's a month in the heart of winter, tornadoes in the Deep South are typical in January, as senior meteorologist Chris Dolce discussed in a previous writeup.

In Alabama, there have been 144 January tornadoes documented from 1950 through 2019, an average of about two January tornadoes each year, according to the National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

That's more tornadoes in January than in any of the months from June through October.

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From late fall through spring, upper-level winds are much stronger than summer. That provides stronger wind shear capable of supporting supercell thunderstorms and squall lines of severe thunderstorms that can generate tornadoes.

In fact, even stronger tornadoes in January aren't all that unusual in Alabama.

According to NOAA's Storm Events Database, there have been 12 previous January tornadoes rated F/EF3 or higher from 1950 through 2020. The most recent one prior to this case in January 2012 was also in Jefferson County, and touched down just east of Fultondale.

How the Forecast Evolved

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues forecasts for severe thunderstorms across the Lower 48 states each day. These "convective outlooks" rate areas of increasing severe risk on a scale of 1 (marginal risk) to 5 (high risk) and indicate areas where general, non-severe thunderstorms are expected.

The early-morning forecast for severe weather in the Southeast wasn't attention-grabbing.

SPC's initial forecast issued around midnight early Monday morning had only an area of marginal risk across the lower Mississippi Valley, extending barely into a sliver of Alabama.

But as is often the case in meteorology, the forecast trend is important.

In their forecast update issued just before 7 a.m. CST, SPC forecasters extended the marginal risk into all of northern and central Alabama and extended the lowest tornado probabilities into those areas.

Despite uncertainty as to how many thunderstorms might persist into the evening, SPC forecasters Roger Edwards and Aaron Gleason cited "favorable wind shear" and "at least isolated supercell potential."

By the early afternoon's forecast update, the SPC added in a small area of level 2 severe risk – "slight risk" – and also the next level higher of tornado probability – 5% probability – in the Tennessee Valley from middle Tennessee into northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama, near the Birmingham metro.

You can see how the outlooks evolved during the day, along with the location of the tornado (red dot), in the animation below.

Watches and Warnings

Just before 6 p.m. CST, or about five hours before the tornado, the SPC issued a tornado watch, which included Fultondale and the entire Birmingham metro area.

"The storm environment will favor supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail into the overnight hours," wrote the SPC in its public watch statement.

Evening temperatures were around 70 degrees at Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport, 4 miles southeast of Fultondale. Dew points, one measure of how moist the air is, had risen to the middle 60s – quite humid for late January.

This warm, humid air near the ground increased the instability of the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms.

The thunderstorm that spawned the tornado moved northeast out of Mississippi Monday evening along a long band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

At 10:34 p.m. CST, the NWS office in Birmingham issued a tornado warning for parts of Jefferson County, including Fultondale, based on radar indications of a possible tornado.

This was roughly six minutes before the tornado began along Chapel Hills Parkway, according to the official NWS damage survey.

An update issued 10 minutes later by the NWS said the "large and extremely dangerous tornado" was confirmed by radar, exhibiting a tornado debris signature, one in which the radar is not only detecting rotation but also debris lofted by the tornado.

The tornado was rated EF3 following an NWS damage survey, with maximum estimated winds of 150 mph.

At least one home was swept off its foundation and debris from some homes "was thrown considerable distances", according to the NWS damage survey.

It was the first EF3 or stronger tornado in Alabama since the deadly Lee County EF4 tornado of Mar. 3, 2019. It was also the first January Alabama EF3 or stronger tornado in nine years, since another EF3 tornado in January 2012 took an eerily similar path in Jefferson County.

The NWS continued to issue subsequent tornado warnings in parts of St. Clair, Calhoun, Cherokee and Cleburne Counties, Alabama.

That same thunderstorm cell continued to track into north Georgia, which prompted an overnight tornado warning in the northwest Atlanta suburban counties of Cherokee, Cobb and Paulding.

What to Take Away

It remains unclear exactly why this thunderstorm spawned such a powerful tornado when it did, in this particular meteorological setup.

It may have run across an outflow boundary, like a small-scale stationary front, generated by air cooled from rain and thunderstorms earlier in the evening over northern Alabama.

Thunderstorms that do this can occasionally tilt and stretch horizontal spin along the outflow boundary into a tornado.

Regardless of how it happened, as we mentioned earlier, a tornado watch was issued almost five hours before the tornado struck, meaning conditions were favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

Pay attention to every severe weather watch, no matter what time of year it's issued. If the ingredients are in place, it doesn't matter what month it is.

Just as you would have a smoke detector and fire extinguisher, you should also have multiple ways to receive severe weather watches and warnings.

That could be a device called a NOAA Weather Radio, or your smartphone, which can sound an alarm when a severe weather alert is issued for your area.

Particularly in the South, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can often occur at night. And those nighttime tornadoes are twice as likely to be deadly.

An alert from a NOAA weather radio or your phone can wake you at night and provide the life-saving minutes you need to seek shelter.

There's no telling how many lives timely NWS tornado warnings have saved over the years, including perhaps in Fultondale, Alabama, Monday night.

Editor's note: The lead time was changed in the article to 6 minutes, based on final results of the NWS-Birmingham damage survey, which were released late Tuesday night, after this article was published.

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