March Can Be Unpredictable For Tornadoes

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March is typically just the beginning of spring’s increase in tornado activity, but the past two Marches ranking among the most active in decades shows how it can be a damaging and deadly month.

(​MORE: Why Spring Is The Most Volatile Season)

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H​ere's how March's average tornadoes stack up against other months: An average of 96 twisters have struck the U.S. annually in March, based on the most recent 20 years of data available. That's fifth most of any month in the calendar year, but still less than half the average of the typical peak months, April and May.

M​arch in the past two years has bucked what's usually the norm: In any given year, the actual number of tornadoes can be significantly higher or lower than average depending on the weather pattern that's in place.

T​ake the past two Marches as an example, which were both on the hyperactive end of the spectrum.

-​March 2022 - 234 tornadoes were documented in the U.S., the most for any March dating to 1950. That was due to three separate outbreaks – March 5-6, March 21-22 and March 30-31.

-​March 2023 - 206 tornadoes hit the U.S., which is second most of any March since 1950. Many of those struck in an historic Midwest and South outbreak that began March 31.

T​ragically, 47 people were killed by tornadoes in March last year, the most of any month in 2023. March 2022 had 12 tornado-related deaths, which is also the most for any month in that year.

Some Marches have been much quieter: From 2013 through 2015, no more than 20 tornadoes were documented in the entire month of March.

Those Marches each were generally colder than average in the central and eastern U.S., the opposite of the pattern most favorable for severe thunderstorms.

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March tornadoes are usually spawned in the South, but the threat area also expands north: Typically in March, the peak tornado threat is still in the South, from Alabama and Georgia westward into Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, northern Texas and Oklahoma. The increased tornado risk also expands north and westward into the central Plains and Midwest during the month.

Here's why severe weather ramps up in March: In early spring, the jet stream is still strong, owing to the still-sharp temperature contrast across the country between lagging winter cold and building warmth.

Increasingly in March, warmer and more humid air is in place over the South and is occasionally pulled farther north into the Plains and Midwest.

This volatile mix of ingredients can ignite severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

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H​ere's what you can do to prepare: F​or those who haven't experienced winter severe thunderstorms, this seasonal change may seem sudden.

Now is the time to review or develop a severe weather plan. Know where to take shelter if you receive a tornado warning and have multiple ways of receiving warnings, including NOAA weather radio and a smartphone app.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

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