Classic Spring Pattern Could Give Rise To More Active Severe Weather Threat In Plains, Midwest Next Week

Severe Threat Returns To Plains, Midwest Next Week

Isolated severe storms will continue in the central U.S. the next few days, but early next week a classic springtime weather pattern could deliver a more widespread threat, including possible tornadoes.

Big Picture

-Through Late Week: The Central and Southern Plains will continue to see widely scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms might turn severe each day, with the main threats being large hail and wind damage.

-Early Next Week: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued early heads up severe weather forecasts for Monday and Tuesday, as shown in the maps below. Monday's threat area includes locations from the upper Mississippi Valley to Oklahoma, with a corridor from southern Minnesota to Iowa and northern Missouri having the greatest likelihood of severe storms. Tuesday, the possibility of severe storms extends from the southern Great Lakes to the Ohio and mid-Mississippi Valleys, eastern Oklahoma and northern Texas.

Deeper Dive

-Classic Spring Setup: A pronounced southward plunge of the jet stream will arrive in the Plains and Midwest from out of the West by early next week. Those strong upper-level winds in tandem with its associated surface low-pressure system will team up with plenty of warm, humid air from the Gulf. This mix of ingredients is common in the spring over these regions and usually results in the formation of thunderstorms that produce severe weather to various degrees.

-Typical Tornado Risk Area Is Shifting: In early spring, the overlap of the ingredients meteorologists watch for to produce tornadoes is most commonly found in the South, and occasionally areas farther north. By the time we end April and turn the calendar to May, a northward shifting jet stream and an increased abundance of warm, moist air causes the Plains and parts of the Midwest to be at greater risk for tornadoes. You can see these areas in the darker red shadings on the map below, which shows May's average tornado risk.

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.