Severe Weather, Including Likely Tornado Threat, Returns To Midwest And Plains Through Early Next Week

Strong Winds, Hail, Tornadoes Possible Late Week

Severe weather for May standards has been quiet so far this month in much of the Plains and Midwest, but a more active pattern is getting underway and will last through early next week, producing wind damage, large hail and a possible tornado threat.

Forecast Timing

-Wednesday-Wednesday Night: The start of this increased threat of severe weather will begin in the Northern Plains, especially from parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into Nebraska and western parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Wind damage and large hail appear to be the primary threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in Nebraska.

-Thursday-Thursday Night: Areas shaded in red below from much of Wisconsin to northeast Illinois, northern Indiana and western Michigan have the greatest chance to see severe weather in the late afternoon and evening hours, including Chicago and Milwaukee. Hail the size of golf balls or larger, damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes are possible in this areas.

The chance of severe weather will be more isolated in areas farther south toward the Ohio Valley, as shaded in orange. But, any severe storms that form in this area could pack high winds, damaging hail and a tornado threat.

-Friday: The focus for the greatest chance of severe storms will shift southward into the Ohio and lower and mid-Mississippi valleys, including Indianapolis, Indiana; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Louisville, Kentucky.

Wind damage and hail appear to be the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado threat is possible. Given very warm conditions, hail could be as large as tennis balls in the red area on the map below.

-Weekend-Early Next Week: We expect the main focus for severe weather to shift into the Central and Southern Plains early next week, including parts of north Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. While it's too early for specific details, the storms could pack a tornado threat as well as wind damage and large hail.

Severe weather may shift farther east toward the Midwest on Tuesday.

Check back to The Weather Channel App and weather.com for updates on this forecast through the next several days and we'll provide more information.

-What To Do: Make sure you know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikes. Have several ways of receiving watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including by smartphone (The Weather Channel app can alert you), NOAA weather radio and local media.

A More Favorable Pattern For Severe Weather

A pair of southward plunges of the jet stream will carve into the West, then spread toward the central states. One will arrive later this week followed by another this weekend into early next week.

In this pattern, warm and humid air eventually streams north from the Gulf into the Plains and Midwest under that active jet stream.

It's a setup more favorable for severe thunderstorms this time of year in the the Plains and Midwest, which are the regions where tornadoes are most common in May.

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.