Tornado Central

Dodge City, Kansas, Missed Tornado Disaster By Just Three Miles on Tuesday

A supercell thunderstorm spawned multiple tornadoes that left damage behind Tuesday evening, but it could have been much worse had it moved a few miles east and struck the heart of Dodge City, Kansas.

One of a cluster of supercells to flare up in western Kansas, this supercell first developed south of Dodge City along an old outflow boundary (more on that later) just after 5 p.m. CDT.

Less than an hour later, the supercell spawned its first brief tornado north-northwest of Minneola, Kansas.

(MORE: 1 Killed, 2 Injured By Plains Severe Weather)

Just minutes after that, a well-defined cone tornado formed southeast of Ensign, Kansas, or about 12 miles southwest of downtown Dodge City. At least one building was damaged and power poles were downed, according to the National Weather Service.

Then the situation became particularly tense.

6:30 p.m. (all times CDT): Two tornadoes are reported in progress by law enforcement 6 to 8 miles southwest of Dodge City.

6:35 p.m.: Homes are destroyed 6 miles southwest of Dodge City.

Twin tornadoes are seen near Dodge City, Kansas, with Dodge City Raceway Park in the foreground on Tuesday, May 24, 2016.
(Instagram/bradguay)

6:41 p.m.: The NWS issues a rare tornado emergency for Dodge City, used only in cases of confirmed, damaging tornadoes headed toward populated areas.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DODGE CITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 640 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS
  OBSERVED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

  THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DODGE CITY.
  TAKE COVER NOW. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

  HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
           HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  FT. DODGE AROUND 650 PM CDT.
  DODGE CITY AROUND 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DEADLY TORNADO IS ON
THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.


TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

With storm surveys still being conducted, the circulation appeared to have tracked just 3 miles west of downtown Dodge City shortly before 7 p.m. CDT, based on Doppler radar.

If the parent supercell had moved just a tad more northeast, that tornado would have carved a destructive swath through at least part of the city that's home to about 28,000 residents.

Radar loop and preliminary tornado reports associated with the supercell thunderstorms near Dodge City, Kansas, on May 24, 2016. Note the preliminary reports do not imply actual tracks of any tornadoes. (Storm reports: NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Contrast this with the extraordinarily unlucky nearby town of Greensburg, Kansas, only one-tenth the areal coverage of Dodge City, devastated by the May 4, 2007 EF5 tornado.

Tornadoes were also reported with this supercell north of Dodge City after 7 p.m., including damage to some structures.

Interestingly enough, a cluster of morning thunderstorms may have set the stage for the Dodge City tornadic supercell.

Visible satellite imagery Tuesday morning indicated a well-defined outflow boundary, the leading edge of rain-cooled air generated by morning thunderstorm clusters to the northeast, pushed into southwest Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

Visible satellite loop and preliminary tornado reports on May 24, 2016, illustrating the outflow boundary generated by morning thunderstorm clusters (blue arrows) setting the table for later severe thunderstorms, spawning tornadoes in western Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. You can also pick out the undular bore/gravity waves propagating southward through Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle early in the day.
(Storm reports: NOAA/NWS/SPC)

As is quite often the case, these leftover, rain-cooled boundaries served as a focus for converging air near the ground, giving rise to thunderstorms.

Furthermore, they serve as a source of low-level wind shear – the change in wind direction and/or speed with height – that can be tilted and stretched into the vertical by thunderstorm updrafts.

The "Dodge City near-miss" supercell fired up along this outflow boundary, as did other supercells Tuesday. Given the extreme instability (warm, moist air near the ground and relatively cool, drier air aloft), the stage was set for supercell thunderstorms.

You may also note the supercell in northeast Oklahoma, responsible for an EF1 tornado in Bristow, flared up along the old outflow boundary.

Though destructive for some, a much worse disaster was averted Tuesday by a mere three miles.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Plains Tornado Photos (May 24, 2016)