Tornado Central

Where January Tornadoes Are Most Likely in the United States

At a Glance

Tornadoes are most likely to occur in the South in January.
Deadly tornadoes have occurred in January during several recent years.

Tornadoes can spin up in any month of the year in the United States when the necessary atmospheric ingredients come together. In winter months such as January, when cold air is abundant, they are not as common, but that doesn't mean you can let your guard down.

During the 20-year period of 1996 through 2015, the first calendar month of the year has averaged about 40 tornadoes annually. It's the third-least-tornadic month, along with December and February.

(MORE: Tornado Central)

20-year average number of tornadoes per month.

The number of tornadoes in January has ranged from a record 212 in 1999 to zero in 2003 and 1986. A single outbreak produced 129 of the January 1999 tornadoes during a two-day period.

This year, dozens of tornadoes touched down in the South on Jan. 2. That has propelled the preliminary tornado count to 44 through the midpoint of the month, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

(RECAP: Early January 2017 Tornadoes)

The deadliest January tornadoes on record both occurred in Arkansas. Fifty-five people were killed in Warren on Jan. 3, 1949, and 55 lost their lives in Fort Smith on Jan. 11, 1898.

Deadly tornadoes have occurred in January in five of the past 10 years through 2016. Seven people were killed by multiple tornadoes on different days in January 2008.

Shown are locations that have a 0.10 percent or greater probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point by late January. Based on 1982-2011 averages. (NOAA/Storm Prediction Center)

Parts of the South are the most at risk for tornadoes in January. This is due to the region's close proximity to Gulf of Mexico moisture, which gets squashed southward during the winter. At times, however, that moisture can get pulled north by weather systems that move across the country in January, which result in an increased chance of severe weather that includes possible tornadoes.

Sometimes, the amount of moisture and instability available may be limited, but strong upper-level energy compensates in generating the risk of severe storms with tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Of course, tornadoes can happen outside of locations where they're most likely to occur. One such example is a 1967 outbreak that spawned tornadoes in parts of northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, northern Missouri and eastern Iowa. A couple of tornadoes touched down as far north as southeastern Wisconsin during a January 2008 outbreak in the Midwest.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Severe Weather Strikes the South