Record-Warmest Winter Closing In Over Parts Of Midwest, Northeast

T​his winter is likely to be the warmest on record for at least 20 cities in the Midwest, Northeast and West as February draws to a close this week.

Record pace since December: The majority of these record-warm places are in the Midwest and Northeast, including Albany, New York; Des Moines, Iowa; and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center. They also include typically frigid cities such as Fargo, North Dakota; International Falls, Minnesota; and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan.

S​ome Western cities have also had a record-warm winter, so far, including Fresno, California; and Medford, Oregon.

M​eteorologists define winter as December through February, encompassing what are typically the three coldest months of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.

Some are clobbering previous records: Three cities, in particular, appear to have already clinched their warmest winters, given how much warmer they've been compared to the standing record.

G​rand Forks, North Dakota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Minneapolis-St. Paul are running at least 1 degree Fahrenheit above their standing winter-to-date record pace. The Twin Cities' warmest winter, by the way, was 146 years ago in 1877-78, when Rutherford B. Hayes was president.

One degree may not sound like much, but these temperatures are averages of each day's high and low since Dec. 1. Not even an end-of-month colder reality check is likely to be nearly enough to avoid a record in these locations.

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Why so warm: One reason for this is the strong El Niño that has been in place. Warmer winters are typical across the northern tier of states during a strong El Niño.

T​here's also been a lack of persistent blocking patterns – such as the Greenland block – that pull cold air from Canada and lock it into the U.S. for longer than a few days. Instead, blocking high pressure has been over central and eastern Canada, keeping the Midwest and Northeast persistently much warmer than usual.

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This lack of snow and ice cover allows more of the sun's energy to heat the ground and air above it, as opposed to melting snow or ice.

F​inally, winter has been the fastest warming season in most of the U.S. since 1970, according to a study from Climate Central. They found that especially true in the Great Lakes and Northeast. That includes shorter cold snaps, less extreme cold and more unusually warm winter days now than before 1970.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM:

-​ Earth's Record-Warmest January Was 2024

-​ Leaving Forests To Grow Could Have Big Climate Impact, Study Shows

-​ New Research Points To El Niño-Climate Change Connection

-​ What Spring Is Like After A Strong El Niño

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives.