Northeast I-95 Snowfall Has Been Pathetic In Recent Years. Will It Continue This Winter?

S​now lovers along much of the Northeast Interstate 95 corridor haven't had much to dig out from in recent winters, and a possible weak La Niña might tilt the odds toward that trend continuing for some this winter.

Snowfall has been much less than 50% of average in the past two winters combined from Boston to Washington, D.C. While last winter provided a bit more snow from New York City to the mid-Atlantic compared to two years ago, totals still lagged behind seasonal averages.

S​nowfall over the past two combined winters was just 16% of average in New York City. Right behind are Boston and Philadelphia at 23% and 25%, respectively.

W​ashington, D.C., was slightly higher at 31% of average snowfall, mostly due to the 8 inches it piled up last winter.

Incredibly, Boston failed to pick up at least 20 inches of snow in back-to-back seasons for the first time in the city's weather records dating to the late 1800s.

W​eak La Niña conditions this winter might help temper totals again for some. Senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman investigated the relationship between seasonal snow and weak La Niña winters in a piece for our Premium subscribers.

I​n his assessment of 12 weak La Niña winters since 1950, he found the overall picture that emerged was a less snowy winter along the I-95 Northeast corridor. That was especially the case in the mid-Atlantic states, where just two of the 12 weak La Niña winters were snowier than average in Washington, D.C.

But this averaging of 12 weak La Niña winters does mask some high variability between years.

F​or example, while Philadelphia exhibited a less snowy signal when all 12 weak La Niña seasons were added up, those seasons ranged from almost 30 inches of snow in 2017-18 to as little as 0.3 inches in 2022-23.

The reason for that variability: The evolution of weather patterns over a winter season has many factors driving it – not just La Niña.

S​o although the flavor of a weak La Niña tempers snowfall statistically, other factors could allow the storm track and cold air to overlap enough to produce one or more significant snowstorms that help boost seasonal totals this winter.

M​ild winters, storm tracks have driven the recent lack of snowfall. Winter 2023-24 was the warmest on record for the Northeast region, according to NOAA. Not far behind was winter 2022-23, which tied as the third-warmest winter on record in the region.

S​imply put, having two of the mildest winters on record back-to-back loads the dice toward more rain events and less snow.

A​n unfavorable storm track for significant snowfall has also played a role.

J​anuary 2024 featured multiple named winter storms that brought snow, rain and strong winds to the U.S., including the Northeast. But the storm track was generally too far west for big snows along the I-95 corridor.

That said, two of those winter storms – Heather and Indigo – did bring modest snowfall, snapping a stretch of more than 700 days since some cities picked up an inch of snow in one day.

T​he previous winter's storm track was also too far west, leaving the Northeast's big cities on the warmer eastern side of their path.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.