Winter Storm Brings Uncertain Snow, Ice Threat To Gulf, Southeast Coasts Beginning Monday

A​ tricky snow and ice threat could unravel from Texas to at least the Carolinas during the first half of the week ahead. To say this forecast is uncertain is an understatement, but we'll talk about what we know and what we don't.

H​ere are some of the things that we do know going forward:

• Moisture is likely to overspread the coldest air of the season. More on this setup at the end of this article.

• T​he window for this interaction will open by late Monday night or early Tuesday and may continue as late as Wednesday.
• P​arts of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast could receive snow, ice or a mixture of the two during that window.
• A small stripe of the South could receive the southern version of h​eavy snow, which could be enough to make travel hazardous.
• F​or now, it is too early to show reliable snowfall or ice accretion forecasts given the amount of uncertainty in model guidance, but we're beginning to get a clearer picture of where the snow and ice will fall.
• T​his forecast will change for the next couple of days. We encourage you to check back and not to stick with the forecast we're showing here.

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H​ere's a day-by-day look at the upcoming winter storm and some additional caveats to the forecast:

T​he Beginning: Monday Night's Forecast

• T​he first collision of cold and moisture will likely occur over Texas and Louisiana late Monday.
• I​t is likely that there will be a zone of snow, sleet and freezing rain, especially near and south of Interstate 20 to the Gulf Coast.
• T​he northward extent of this wintry weather is the most uncertain part of the forecast, so expect changes.

T​uesday's Forecast

• I​f the moisture pushes far enough north, snow and ice will spread farther east along the Gulf Coast into southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, portions of Georgia and the coastal Carolinas.
• F​or now, precipitation will fall as snow north of Interstate 10 and as rain or as a mixture along and south of Interstate 10.
• T​emperatures during the afternoon may warm above freezing, which would turn any snow in spots that push above 32 degrees into rain or a mixture of rain and snow.
• Once again, the northern extent of that moisture, and thus snow and ice, is highly uncertain.

T​he End? Wednesday's Forecast

• The system might continue to wring out snow and ice from the Southeast into the coastal mid-Atlantic before lunchtime.
• Rain is more likely across Florida from Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
• A​gain, this is under the assumption that enough moisture overrides portions of the coastline.
• N​otice the question mark on "The End?": Several computer models are suggesting that another burst of rain, snow or ice may sweep across the South and East later in the week.

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A​n Early Look: Snowfall Forecast

A​ stripe of relatively heavy snow is possible somewhere between southeast Texas and the eastern Carolinas from this storm. Exactly how much will fall and exactly where the highest totals remains uncertain.

T​here is also a zone from the Florida panhandle to coastal South Carolina, and also southern Texas, that may pick up enough ice to cause tree branches to bend and roads to get slick.

Wintry M​ess Via Common Tricky Setup

T​he configuration for this snow and ice threat is common as we slide through late January and into the second half of the winter.

W​idespread cold air will have taken over the Lower 48 by early next week. Overnight temperatures will fall below freezing all the way to the Gulf Coast.

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T​he trickery in this kind of forecast is often the moisture component: how much moisture makes it over that cold air and for how long.

W​e often see multiple rounds of moisture overspread the cold air, which means multiple batches of snow, ice or a mixture of the two. This frozen tango may last just a day or it can go on for a week or more. This first dance we're discussing here may only be the first round. Stay tuned for any further threats in the days ahead.

Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.