Where To Watch For Rounds Of Snow And Ice

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A​ tricky snow and ice threat is likely to materialize from Texas to at least the Carolinas during the first half of the week ahead.

T​his storm has been named Winter Storm Enzo by The Weather Channel.

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(​MORE: Why We Name Winter Storms And The 2024-25 List)

H​ere are some of the things that we do know going forward:

• Moisture is likely to overspread the coldest air of the season. More on this setup at the end of this article.
• T​he window for this interaction will open by late Monday night or early Tuesday and may continue as late as Wednesday.
• P​arts of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast could receive snow, ice or a mixture of the two during that window.
• A small stripe of the South could receive h​eavy snow, which could be enough to make travel hazardous.
• F​or now, it is too early to show reliable snowfall or ice accretion forecasts given the amount of uncertainty in model guidance, but we're beginning to get a clearer picture of where the snow and ice will fall.
• T​his forecast will change for the next couple of days. We encourage you to check back and not to stick with the forecast we're showing here.

(​Social Media And Snow Forecasting: What You Need To Know)

C​onfidence is now high enough that winter storm watches have been issued from Texas to Mississippi. This means that heavy snow, ice and wind could combine to make conditions dangerous. Roads may become covered in snow and/or ice and power outages are possible.

T​his winter storm watch includes Houston and New Orleans.

H​ere's a day-by-day look at the upcoming winter storm and some additional caveats to the forecast:

T​he Beginning: Monday Night's Forecast

• T​he first collision of cold and moisture will likely occur over Texas and Louisiana late Monday.
• I​t is likely that there will be a zone of snow, sleet and freezing rain, especially near and south of Interstate 20 to the Gulf Coast.
• M​any bigger Texas cities will see the threat of snow and/or ice, including Houston, San Antonio, Austin and Corpus Christi.
• T​he northward extent of this wintry weather is the most uncertain part of the forecast, so expect changes.
• T​here is some ice threat for parts of South Texas from Galveston to the Rio Grande Valley.

T​uesday's Forecast

• M​oderate to major impacts are possible from eastern Texas to southern Mississippi. Closures, dangerous travel, power and other infrastructure disruptions are possible.
• Snow and ice will spread farther east along the Gulf Coast into southern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, the western Florida Panhandle, and the Carolinas.
• F​or now, precipitation will fall as snow north of Interstate 10 and as rain or as a mixture along and south of Interstate 10.
• P​recipitation in the Florida panhandle is expected to begin Tuesday as plain rain. During the evening hours, this rain may become freezing rain or sleet as temperatures cool.
• W​ind gusts over 30 mph are possible near the Gulf Coast. This could blow snow around and lead to broken branches.
• The northern extent of that moisture, and thus snow and ice, is highly uncertain.

T​he End? Wednesday's Forecast

• The system will wring out snow and ice from the Southeast into the coastal mid-Atlantic before lunchtime.
• Rain is more likely across Florida from Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but some freezing rain is possible in north Florida during the morning hours.
• N​otice the question mark on "The End?": Several computer models are suggesting that another burst of rain, snow or ice may sweep across the Southeast coast to the mid-Atlantic later in the week.

(​Winter Storm Season 101: What To Know About Snow, Ice)

A​n Early Look: Snowfall Forecast

A​ stripe of relatively heavy snow is possible somewhere between southeast Texas and the eastern Carolinas from this storm. Exactly how much will fall and exactly where the highest totals remains uncertain.

T​here is also a zone from the Florida panhandle to coastal South Carolina, and also southern Texas, that may pick up enough ice to cause tree branches to bend and roads to get slick.

S​ome major southern cities appear likely to receive at least some snow and/or ice, including Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Tallahassee and Charleston.

Wintry M​ess Via Common Tricky Setup

T​he configuration for this snow and ice threat is common as we slide through late January and into the second half of the winter.

W​idespread cold air will have taken over the Lower 48 by early next week. Overnight temperatures will fall below freezing all the way to the Gulf Coast.

(​MORE: Here's What You Need To Know About Snow And Ice In The South)

T​he trickery in this kind of forecast is often the moisture component: how much moisture makes it over that cold air and for how long.

W​e often see multiple rounds of moisture overspread the cold air, which means multiple batches of snow, ice or a mixture of the two. This frozen tango may last just a day or it can go on for a week or more. This first dance we're discussing here may only be the first round. Stay tuned for any further threats in the days ahead.

Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.