How A Super El Niño Can Impact Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

The stage is set.

The 2026 Atlantic Basin hurricane season is underway, and the list of names for this year’s storms has long been finalized.

Which raises the question: Is there any way to predict which storm name will become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026?

(MORE: Here's our hurricane outlook for this season)

Nothing's guaranteed, but there are some trends you can certainly study. We looked at every Atlantic hurricane season since 2000, and here are some things we noticed.

It likely won't happen for a few more weeks

If you remove the one outlier (2016), when Hurricane Alex formed on Jan. 14(!), there hasn't been a single hurricane to form before June 21 in the last 26 seasons.

It could be the 'A' storm ...

And that has happened as many times as any letter since 2000. The hurricane lists go in alphabetical order, which means they always start with an "A" storm — this year's is Arthur. The "A" storm has strengthened into the first hurricane of the season in five years since 2000, tied for the most of any letter.

(MORE: A 'Super' El Niño is increasingly likely; here's what that could mean)

... But 'Bertha' and 'Dolly' are in the running

The "B" and "D" storms have each been the first hurricane of five seasons since 2000, too. Those three letters make up 15 of the last 26 seasons' first hurricanes, so it's pretty likely that we won't get far down the 2026 list before we see our first hurricane.

'E' and 'C' are dark horses

Rounding out the first five letters, we've seen "E" storms strengthen into the first hurricane of four seasons since 2000 — Erin (2001), Ernesto (2006), Elsa (2021) and Erin (2025) — and "C" storms have done it twice (Claudette in 2003 and Chris in 2012).

Which storm name do you think markets will price as the first hurricane of 2026? Let us know in the comments.

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