A strengthening El Niño could set up a pattern that could make you want to change your trip this summer, especially if you’re prone to smoke-related illnesses. But don’t bug your travel agent just yet. 

This summer could feature a smoke pipeline that might bring back memories of waves of smoke traveling southward from Canada, blotting out skies in the Midwest, Northeast and South.

The Pattern: Northwest Flow Could Create A Smoke Pipeline

In several recent summers before the development of El Niño, the weather pattern over Canada has locked in a high pressure system over Alaska and northwest Canada and a low pressure system over eastern Canada and the eastern Lower 48. 

Under the potential dome of high pressure in western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, hot and dry weather is likely to spawn more wildfires.

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The smoke from this enhanced fire activity is likely to be transported southeastward by the northwest flow, right into the eastern half of the U.S., as shown in the map below.

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El Niño’s Impacts

We will likely be in a weak to moderate, but strengthening El Niño by the time summer rolls around, meaning that warmer water in the equatorial Pacific will be spurring on thunderstorm activity in the Pacific by then. 

This thunderstorm activity causes air to spread out at jet stream level and pushes air and pressure away from the equator, stacking the high pressure over Alaska and western Canada. 

Typically when a ridge of high pressure is built somewhere, a trough of low pressure is built downstream. In this case, that is what is expected over eastern North America this summer if history repeats itself. 

Should You Change Your Trip? 

The simple answer is no. 

Here’s where wildfire smoke is right now: 

There is no concern for any bursts of smoke coming across the border in the next week and what we’re talking about here is just a favorable pattern for fire and smoke development eventually during the summer.

The most likely spots to be affected by smoke include Glacier and Badlands national parks, the shores of the Great Lakes or cities like Minneapolis and Kansas City. All of this will depend on which way the wind blows when there are fires.

If you’re susceptible to breathing issues or are just concerned about air quality, forecasts for smoke are generally reliable a few days out, but we can see patterns like this one that are favorable for smoke transportation up to a week out after a fire develops. 

I am personally traveling to the Midwest in a couple weeks and I have more concerns about heat than I do about smoke for the time being.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for nearly 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.