How A Super El Niño Can Impact Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be less busy than usual, partially due to a developing El Niño, but that doesn't mean it won't be dangerous.

The latest forecast numbers

In its latest update Wednesday, Colorado State University's tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 11 storms, five of which will become hurricanes and two of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger.

That is below the 30-year average numbers of storms and hurricanes, and it is two fewer storms and one fewer hurricane than their initial outlook released in early April.

El Niño is developing

One factor expected to exert a big influence on hurricane season is a developing El Niño.

And it's increasingly possible it could become a super El Niño, one in which ocean temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean warm to at least 2 degrees Celsius above average.

Why does that matter?

• El Niño warmed ocean water can affect weather patterns around the world.
  
• The stronger the El Niño, the more certain it may have a strong influence.
  
• It can produce higher wind shear and sinking, dry air over the Caribbean Sea and other parts of the Atlantic, which are hostile conditions for hurricanes to develop.
  

As the graph below shows, El Niño and super El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons have typically seen fewer hurricanes and less activity, especially if the El Niño is "super."

(MORE: Everything to know about El Niño | How it could affect hurricane tracks)

Lukewarm Atlantic water

Another reason for the less active season ahead is that ocean temperatures in some areas where tropical storms and hurricanes form aren't as warm as in past years.

You can see that in the map below. Notice the stretch of ocean from off western Africa to the Windward Islands is generally near or even a little cooler than average as of early June.

However, much of the western Atlantic Ocean, east of the Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico, is warmer than average.

Ocean temperatures aren't the be all and end all for tropical activity, but at least in parts of the basin, they may be a little less supportive of development and intensification this season.

Here are the key takeaways

A less active hurricane season doesn't guarantee a no impact season.

While this potential super El Niño may make Caribbean travel less risky, it doesn't mean there won't be hurricane or tropical storm landfalls this season.

As we discussed in a previous article, there have been impactful hurricanes and tropical storms in past super El Niño seasons, including in the U.S.

Also, you don't need a hurricane to produce impacts such as flash flooding. Tropical storms, even tropical depressions, can do that as long as they move slowly.

If you live in hurricane-prone areas, you should prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of these seasonal forecasts.

It only takes one landfall in your area to make what was otherwise a quiet season one you'll never forget.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​