A strong El Niño is going to be in place through this winter, and that could influence how much snow the slopes in different regions of the U.S. pick up this ski season.

W​hat is El Niño and how strong could it get? It is a periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean that tends to throw the Earth's weather out of whack.

Waters there could be as much as 2 degrees Celsius above average by the time we get to September. By the time ski slopes open in the U.S. in October, water temperatures could be several tenths of a degree warmer than that.

This meets the threshold for "super" El Niño status.

(Your one-stop El Niño guide: Everything you need to know right here)

For skiers, a strong El Niño means that you might have to head south.

W​hy does this strip of warm ocean water matter? El Niño and its cool counterpart La Niña can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away in the United States and around the world. Since most El Niños peak in late fall or winter, they can have their strongest influence in the colder months of the year.

In general, the classic El Niño winter tends to be wetter than average through much of the southern U.S., from parts of California to the Carolinas, due in part to a stronger, more southern jet stream track.

A​cross much of the northern U.S., a stronger El Niño tends to produce a warmer winter. In other words, less snow and less time on the slopes.

W​hat does that mean for snowfall? We examined snowfall data since 1950 for about four dozen U.S. locations for which sufficient data exists and snowfall is typical at least once a year.

We grouped these seasonal snowfall totals into El Niño, La Niña and neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) seasons. For most of the locations, there were 26 El Niño, 25 La Niña and 22 neutral seasons of snowfall data.

T​he map below shows El Niño's impact over the 73-year period.

You can see a north-south split. Winters are generally at least somewhat snowier than average across the South, but less snowy than usual across the northern tier.

(HIT THE SLOPES NOW: A few summer spots to ski in through August)

Past seasons

The most recent El Niño in the 2023-2024 winter brought the lack of winter-like temperatures across most of the Northern Tier. Eight states from North Dakota to New Hampshire saw their warmest winter on record. Frequent thaws and rainfall kept the Green and White mountains less snowy than usual.

El Niño's typical southern rainy spell didn't materialize, leaving most of the South without much, if any, snow. The warm winter and mixed bag of precipitation for the Midwest left them with less snow, too.

While still a strong El Niño, that winter saw a slightly weaker warming in the Pacific than what we're anticipating this winter and than what was seen in 2015-2016.

That season saw record-setting warmth across New England and well-above-average temperatures across the Northern Plains and Midwest.

Compared to 2023-2024, there was slightly more precipitation across the country. The Midwest, southern Appalachians and Pacific Northwest saw more precipitation than average.

(MORE: The 6 best ski resorts for beginners in the United States)

Does a strong El Niño matter?

Because no two El Niños are alike and the intensity of each could matter for impacts, we also examined strong El Niño seasons. One drawback is a limited sample size of only eight strong El Niño seasons since 1950.

What was most interesting in our investigation was how much the strength of the El Niño mattered.

B​elow are some snowfall statistics for five cities in the snowier El Niño zone from Arizona to the nation's capital.

I​n each case, El Niño winters were snowier, but a stronger El Niño produced even more snow in all the cities below except Washington.

Typically snowy Flagstaff, Arizona, picked up more than 2 feet of additional snow in a strong El Niño season than average. Sounds like a good ski trip spot!

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.