More Dangerous Heat Domes Possible Across Europe This Summer
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science/weather-explainers

Europe is about to see the heat cranked up once again, but the hottest time of the year is still weeks away.

Rob Shackelford
ByRob Shackelford
4 hours agoUpdated: July 7, 2026, 12:39 pm EDTPublished: July 7, 2026, 12:00 am EDT

More heat domes are coming for Europe this summer

Another round of heat is expected for Europe in the coming days, and forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures for the months to come.

Domes of heat are the main driver of the upcoming heat and could add to an already hot summer after Europe was just baked by record heat waves in May and June.

Europe heat eye candy

Another heat dome to build soon

Let's start with the more immediate future for Europe. Heat will continue to build in western Europe as another round of high pressure will set up shop, then remain over the western side of the continent. Temperatures in the 90s are expected, with France and Spain looking to flirt or surpass triple-digit highs (or 37.7°C).

DCT 13

More July heat domes

Unfortunately, this upcoming weekend is potentially a hint of what is to come. According to the July outlook from AG2 and The Weather Company, the entire continent is expected to have above-average temperatures this month. And not just above average, but well above average. The map below shows the potential situation in July.

Those darker colors are the areas where the greatest above-average temperatures are expected. The reason is that we expect more heat domes to set up across Europe over the next month.

(MORE: What is a heat dome?)

HEat

Lack of rainfall, too

Heat domes bring days of clear, calm, dry and hot weather. That means below-average precipitation for those who are beginning to desperately need it.

Wildfires have already begun to spread quickly out of control in France, leading to evacuations.

Widespread below-average precipitation is expected for the month of July. With heat waves already having occurred in May and June, should July follow a similar pattern, drought conditions could increase substantially.

With drought conditions on the rise, that only means more wildfires that could quickly spread out of control.

Precip outlook July Europe

When is Europe supposed to be the hottest?

Believe it or not, we are actually just getting to the hottest time of the year (on average) for Europe.

We actually expect the majority of the continent to see its hottest temperatures in July or August. The main reason for the delay has a few factors:

heat averages

The first is due to the fact that Europe is surrounded by water; the water absorbs a lot of heat from the sun, slowing the hottest day until after the summer solstice.

The map above shows the average hottest month of the year. Notice that a lot of the August hottest times are closer to the coast. That is the result of those waters remaining cooler. Air moving over these cooler waters, called onshore flow, can actually help keep regions closer to coastlines cool enough to have their hottest month be August.

Unfortunately, the recent heat wave in June brought even greater heat than the hottest average we usually see for some major European cities.

europe heat comparison

Impacts of recent heat waves

So the situation across Europe this year has some concerns to me. Not only was June full of record-breaking heat, but May was as well. We essentially saw July- and August-like heat waves in May and June. With that, the map below shows an interesting angle for what we could see in the coming months.

Sea surface temperatures near the coastlines are running well above average due to the recent heat waves. This means one of the factors that helps keep the coastlines a little cooler may not be as helpful this year. We could be seeing the natural defenses that keep temperatures down be less effective, which means later heat domes could have more impacts.

And you notice that pocket of cooler temperatures on the western side of that graphic as well? Well, a recent study came out showing the connection between this pocket of cooler temperatures leading to even more heatwaves in Europe.

SST anomaly

More heat domes past July?

And this goes beyond July. Below is the three-month temperature outlook. The trend is unfortunately more of the same. Above-average temperatures across Western Europe mean we could see more heat domes and more record-breaking temperatures through September.

July to September Europe temp outlook


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