The Atlantic hurricane season shifts into a higher gear in August toward a mid-September peak. But that's not happening yet.

Instead, it’s the quietest start to hurricane season by one measure this century, and there are a few reasons why. 

Where are we right now?

There have only been three named storms that have been active for a combined 4.5 days, according to Colorado State University.

The main storm that brought impact was Tropical Storm Arthur, but most of its impacts happened after the storm became a remnant low.

(MORE: Tropical Storm Arthur Recap)

Tropical Storm Bertha hugged the Gulf Coast, but only brought locally heavy rain to a few areas.

Get More of Our News on Google

Set The Weather Company as a 'Preferred Source' to get quicker access to the news you value.

Tropical Storm Cristobal formed out in the middle of the Atlantic and only lasted 24 hours.

We also had two areas of invest last week that almost reached the point of becoming at least a tropical depression. But wind shear and dry air tore these storms up before we even could see Dolly or Edouard, the next names for the basin.

How weird is this?

The fourth named storm on average usually arrives by August 15, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The first hurricane usually arrives by August 11.

So, we aren't that far behind in either named storms nor the first hurricane's arrival, as of the time we published this article.

But by another metric, we're way behind a typical pace.

Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a measurement meteorologists use to not just count storms, but also takes into account how long they last and how strong they become. Summing the ACE up for each storm in a season gives us one measure of how active a season is.

In terms of ACE, it's been the slowest-starting Atlantic hurricane season since 1998. As of August 18, only six other hurricane seasons in the satellite era started slower than 2026.

Could it get weirder?

August tends to be the month that we see a major ramp-up in tropical activity in the Atlantic, especially in the month's latter half.

The graphic below shows the uptick that begins in August, leading to the peak in the second week of September.

September is historically the peak because sea surface temperatures reach their peak and atmospheric conditions are the most favorable for tropical development.

But, if we get through the first week of September without another named storm, this could be the slowest start to any hurricane season in the satellite era, since 1966.

El Niño is playing its part

The intensifying El Niño has been the largest contributor to the way this hurricane season has unfolded.

One of a stronger El Niño's impacts is an increase in wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction, in the Atlantic Basin. This increase in wind shear can shred storms before they even develop, or weaken ones that do.

(MORE: Your guide for everything El Niño)

That will likely continue. The graphic below shows all September hurricanes during super El Niño years.

There was only one hurricane in each of those years. But even though the threat is low, it isn't zero.

A recent August shoutout, with a caveat

There was one recent hurricane season which failed to produce a single storm in August.

That was in 2022, the first time that happened since the rapidly strengthening El Niño of 1997.

(MORE: No named storms August 2022)

But the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season pivoted quickly once the calendar turned to September.

Florida, in particular, got slammed that year. Hurricanes Ian and Nicole brought widespread damage to the state, and Fiona raked through Atlantic Canada as an intense post-tropical cyclone.

(MORE: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2022 |Ian Recap)

So what should you do?

Just because we are approaching a super El Niño, that doesn't mean there is a guarantee that no storms may impact the U.S. Remember, it only takes one catastrophic landfall to make a season memorable.

Be sure to pay attention throughout the hurricane season. Should a storm find a pocket of favorable conditions, you can see a named storm suddenly develop. Should this occur closer to the U.S., then you wouldn't have much time to prepare. It is very important to have a plan in place before storms form.

Even though we are approaching a super El Niño, we are still approaching the heart of the season. A quiet start to a hurricane season doesn't necessarily mean it will stay that way.

One thing that we can be certain of, it will be hotter and drier in the Caribbean this fall.

The Weather Company and Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, share data: we provide certain data Kalshi uses to resolve markets, and Kalshi provides market data featured in content like this article. Kalshi alone operates its event-contract exchange and is responsible for the contracts, trading, and settlement on its exchange. If you use our links to communicate with Kalshi and then open a Kalshi account or trade on Kalshi, we may earn a fee.

For Kalshi’s complete member agreement, click here.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia, studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.