UN warns of 'supersized' El Niño in unprecedented forecast
Advertisement

The World Meteorological Organization warns the strength of this El Niño could be "literally off the charts."

Ron Brackett
ByRon Brackett
2 days agoUpdated: September 5, 2026, 8:41 am EDTPublished: September 3, 2026, 6:14 am EDT

This year's El Niño is becoming "supersized" and is expected to be stronger than any other on record, the United Nations warned Thursday.

The climate pattern, which can bring extreme heat, floods, drought and disruptive weather worldwide, is expected to become “very strong” and peak around the end of the year, according to new forecasts from the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027 is now close to 100%. The WMO has never issued such an unequivocal forecast for El Niño.

Weather in your inbox
By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.

(MORE: What past Septembers looked like during a strengthening El Niño)

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a news release. “The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”

El Niño is a warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every three to four years.

Get More of Our News on Google

Set The Weather Company as a 'Preferred Source' to get quicker access to the news you value.

Sea surface temperatures are already well above average and are continuing to rise.

Below the waves, some areas have seen subsurface ocean temperatures more than 8 degrees Celsius (14.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average during July and early August.

The combination of those surface and subsurface ocean conditions provides strong support for continued El Niño conditions and the potential for further strengthening during the coming months, the WMO said.

(MORE: Super El Niño could flip winter temperatures upside down in US)

"If this trajectory continues, ‌it may be stronger than anything ‌since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for ⁠the past ⁠four decades," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva.

Map of the Pacific Ocean showing elevated sea surface temperatures

These are departures from average water temperatures (degrees Celsius) in the Pacific Ocean on Sept. 1, 2026.

(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)

From September through November, however, forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire Earth’s surface.

Rainfall patterns are also taking on the characteristic signature of El Niño, with greater chances of heavy rain and flooding in some places and drought in others.

“El Niño has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”

Loading comments...

Advertisement