SpaceX announced its plan to build a spaceport — yep, that’s like an airport for rockets — with a $100 billion investment in Starbase, Louisiana. Now, if they can just get the weather to cooperate.

Currently, Cape Canaveral in Florida is the country's most established, highest-volume rocket launch site. It serves as a good benchmark for comparison to this new location in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, as to how the weather stacks up to benefit or inhibit launch operations.

(MORE: The sun was dark for 18 months: what we can learn from history's worst volcanic eruptions)

Here’s what’s at play.

Rainfall

Data from nearby Starbase, LA, shows 64.09 inches of rainfall on a yearly basis, but 50.79 inches near Cape Canaveral. 

For NASA’s Artemis I weather criteria, there’s a hard rule outright: “Do not launch through precipitation.”

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A wet launch pad can be a ground-safety hazard for personnel and equipment. And aside from the raindrops themselves, it’s also a signal for other atmospheric instability — like lightning, turbulent air or thick clouds, covered more below.

Cape Canaveral also has more of a dry season than southern Louisiana, and more rain could mean more launches that get canceled.

Lightning

The Apollo 12 mission, the second crewed mission to land on the moon, was famously almost aborted because of a lightning strike 37 seconds into the launch. This led NASA to codify the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria, which stands today to prevent future potential disaster.

(MORE: First views of SpaceX rocket crash site on moon released)

Lightning data doesn't favor Starbase, LA, either, with about 80 to 96 lightning events per square kilometer per year. At Cape Canaveral, it’s 48 to 64.

Ground-level and low-level winds

It’s important for a rocket to maintain stability during the first seconds of flight, and high gusts at the launch pad can force a delay.

Cape Canaveral is a thin barrier peninsula subject to strong dual sea breezes, from the Atlantic and the Indian River Lagoon. This sea breeze also causes the infamous afternoon thunderstorms seen along the coast.

In this case, Cape Canaveral faces some trouble because strong, gusty coastal sea breezes frequently cause ground-level wind holds there.

Starbase, LA, is dominated by flat marshland and coastal bays, leading to broad, moist onshore flows rather than sharp local wind fronts.

Starbase, LA, wins here because Cape Canaveral can see sea breezes and its thunderstorms turn violent in a matter of minutes, while Louisiana often doesn't see a strong sea breeze.

Upper-level wind shear

Higher up in the sky, wind shear (the change of wind speed or direction with altitude) can cause control issues. If winds aloft change direction or speed too abruptly, the flight computer must steer aggressively, risking structural damage or forced launch aborts.

In 2016, a SpaceX launch was rescheduled directly because of extreme high-altitude wind shear.

Cape Canaveral sits along the Atlantic coast where the jet stream often isn't seen for months, but can become quite strong in the winter, resulting in strong high-altitude wind shifts.

Starbase, LA, sits in the central Gulf Coast, where winter and spring jet stream shifts can cause extreme shear aloft.

The Cape wins this one. Vermilion Parish's slightly higher latitude exposes it to the jet stream more often during the year and with greater intensity.

Hurricane exposure

Both areas definitely experience tropical systems, but how they do differs.

Starbase, LA, is directly vulnerable to Gulf hurricanes, which tend to move quickly inland with little warning. This complicates the timeline required to roll a massive rocket back into a vehicle assembly building for protection.

But at Cape Canaveral, Atlantic hurricanes often recurve northward parallel to the coast — though direct landfalls still occur.

In the Lake Charles, Louisiana, area — the nearest NWS study — there’s one tropical storm every 1.6 years, one hurricane every 3.3 years and one major hurricane every 14 years.

For Cape Canaveral, it gets brushed or hit every 1.93 years, a direct hurricane hit every 8.56 years, major hurricane every 30.8 years.

The verdict is that the Starbase, LA, region gets hit roughly twice as often, and its frequency of major hurricanes — every 14 years compared with about every 30 — is a big difference.

But the Louisiana coastline is a mushy marshland, so it can withstand more storm surge.

Ground stability

Starbase, LA, sits on a lot of marshland. There’s not the sturdiest ground there — and that ground is falling into the Gulf.

Scientists recently issued a stark warning for coastal Louisiana communities that the time to begin planning for relocation is now.

In a study, researchers examined how climate change is causing a combination of sea-level rise, sinking land and intensifying extreme weather, and how it is all impacting one of the most vulnerable coastlines in America.

(MORE: Scientists warn New Orleans residents may need to begin relocation planning now, study finds)

That could affect the longevity of establishing Starbase, LA, years down the road.

Content writer Ada Wood enjoys exploring the stories that science and climate teach us about our natural world and how it influences the way we live in it.