A tropical cyclone outbreak is ongoing in the Pacific with three fresh hurricanes – Lowell, Karina and Marie – all while the Atlantic is asleep.

First, we'll start with a rundown of the current activity; then we'll jump into what the strengthening El Niño has to do with it, how common tropical cyclone outbreaks are and what this means going forward.

(MORE: What is a tropical cyclone?)

The latest storms

From west to east, between Hawaii and Mexico, we have hurricanes Lowell, Karina and Marie.

Hurricane Lowell:

Lowell poses a threat to Hawaii early next week. Lowell became a short-lived Category 5 on Wednesday before weakening.

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Hurricane Karina:

The middle child of the three hurricanes was once a Category 4 hurricane and was also temporarily in a rare group of hurricanes called annular hurricanes. Annular hurricanes are self-sustaining donuts of thunderstorms that are almost all eyewall with no outer rainbands that tend to survive much longer than other hurricanes over chilly waters. These are much more common in the Pacific than in the Atlantic.

Hurricane Marie:

The newest of the trio is likely to bring waves and additional moisture to the west coast of North America, including California and Arizona.

The stage is set: El Niño is here

A turbocharged warming in the Eastern Pacific makes it much easier for storm development across the Pacific. The climate phenomenon not only increases the temperature where these hurricanes form, but also causes air to rise across the basin.

You often see more storms form in El Niño and those that do form are more likely to be stronger.

But this isn't just your average El Niño – it is on track to be the strongest El Niño on record.

(MORE: UN warns of 'supersized' El Niño in unprecedented forecast)

Forecasts expect 2-3 times the number of tropical systems near Hawaii and a significantly increased amount of activity through November closer to Mexico, too.

Tropical cyclone outbreaks

This burst of activity is called a tropical cyclone outbreak, which is defined as having three or more tropical storms or depressions form within a few days of one another in a relatively short amount of time in close proximity of each other.

This happens a couple of times a year in the Atlantic or the eastern Pacific, and it is very common in the Western Pacific.

This case is slightly different because it wasn't just tropical storms or depressions; all three developed into hurricanes.

In 2023, we had Gert, Emily, Franklin and Harold develop within 39 hours of each other in the Atlantic basin. They were all tropical storms. That was a record case and it is not at all common for so many storms to develop in such a short amount of time.

(MORE: There was also a time with four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes)

One of the reasons that these bursts in activity occur is that there is a traveling wave of upward motion in the atmosphere. When this upward motion is enhanced over a given spot, thunderstorm activity in the tropics gets an assist and makes the possibility of tropical storms forming more likely.

If you really want to impress your friends, you can tell them that the Madden-Julian Oscillation assisted in firing these three hurricanes up.

What does this mean for the rest of the season?

On the grand scale, the simple answer is "What is in motion stays in motion."

Given El Niño, it will remain very active in the Pacific over the next few weeks while remaining relatively quiet in the Atlantic.

There will likely be more storms in both basins before the end of the season in November, but the number of such systems is likely to be higher in the Pacific.

It is possible that we also get a system or two to watch in the Atlantic over the next week or two from the same wave of upward motion that is spreading over the Atlantic, but these bursts of activity will last a week or so, then quiet down.

We're also on the backside of the peak for hurricane activity, so the overall trend will be downward in activity.

That said, as Lowell shows, there could be additional threats to Hawaii or the American Southwest this season, and if the Atlantic wakes up, we could have another threat or two left there too.

Chances lean heavily toward the Pacific.

How many storms will we get? We'll know in December.

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