If you're anything like me, you’re ready for all things fall – fall foods, fall activities, fall decorations. 

And fall just wouldn’t be the same without pumpkins. But weather plays a big role on pumpkin crops, and this summer’s weather may just have you wanting to grab your pumpkin early. 

How weather impacts pumpkin crops 

Despite their hard exterior, pumpkins are very sensitive to weather conditions. 

In the summer, the pumpkin flowers need pollination to occur in order for the pumpkin crops to grow. But on very warm days, the flowers stay open for less time, making pollination less effective. 

And if it's too hot during the summer, this could lead to wilted plants or cause the pumpkin flowers to fall, resulting in no pumpkin crops producing at all. 

Meanwhile, extremely wet conditions are even worse for pumpkin crops, and are often pumpkin farmers’ top weather-related concern.

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If it rains too much and the soil is very moist, this could lead to nutrient deficiencies, delayed maturity of the plant, and an increase in the chances of plant diseases developing, like mildew. 

When summers are wetter, pumpkin farmers tend to see that the fruit quality decreases, there are fewer pumpkins, and more disease spreads across the plants. 

All of this can lead to significantly fewer pumpkins than normal. 

But what about this year’s weather?

The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. this July was 3.3 degrees warmer than average, making it the warmest July on record.

That alone is enough to cause some concern for the production of pumpkin crops this year in the U.S.

But that’s not all. Illinois, who is the top pumpkin producer, harvesting close to 30% of all pumpkins produced in the U.S., experienced an above average rainy June. 

They saw 7.11 inches of rain, over 3 inches above average, making it their 6th wettest June on record. 

Back in 2015, Illinois saw their wettest June yet, with a total of 9.44 inches of rain. These very wet conditions flooded fields and caused disease and mildew to spread, resulting in more than a 50% reduction in Illinois's pumpkin production that year. 

Luckily, the conditions this year aren’t that extreme, but the above average wet conditions and a record warm July could definitely have an impact on the overall pumpkin production in the U.S.

In addition, there was record June tornado activity across parts of the Midwest, including a preliminary total of 91 tornado reports in Illinois. Severe weather like tornadoes and hail can definitely cause damage to pumpkin crops. 

So if you want a good pumpkin this year, I’d recommend picking one out earlier, before the pickings are too slim.

Miriam Guthrie is an associate meteorologist with weather.com who graduated from Georgia Tech with her undergrad and graduate degrees in Earth & Atmospheric Sciences.