Earth had its hottest August dating to the mid-19th century, while the U.S. and Western Europe had a record hot summer, according to two separate just-released government analyses.

NOAA's August global climate report found August 2026 topped 2023 and 2024 as Earth's hottest August, with the planet's temperature 2.38 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average.

NOAA global temperature records date to 1850.

A separate analysis from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service found August 2026 not only was the hottest August, but it also tied for Earth's hottest month with July 2023.

NOAA's July report found July 2026 was the hottest month in their database.

It's common for separate analyses of global temperatures to differ by a few fractions of a degree.

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A record-hot summer

The Lower 48 states had their record-hottest summer, according to NOAA.

The monthly mean temperature from June through August 2026 over the contiguous U.S. was about 0.4 degrees warmer than both 1936 and 2021, America's previous record-hottest summers, according to NOAA's calculations.

As you can see in the map below, almost the entire Lower 48 was warmer than average this summer. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah each had their hottest summers in 2026.

It was also the hottest summer on record in Western Europe, including the hottest in France and the U.K. and second-hottest in Germany.

Japan has now had its four hottest summers in the past four years, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Vast swaths of Africa, Central Asia, the Pacific Ocean, parts of Australia and New Zealand were record-warm from June through August, according to NOAA's analysis.

Record ocean temperatures

The planet's oceans were also record-warm from June through August.

According to the European C3S, the planet's oceans outside the polar regions have been record-warm for this time of year each day from June 19 through the end of August.

As of the end of August, these ocean temperatures tied the all-time ocean temperature record from March 2024, C3S found.

This was not only fueled by the intensifying El Niño, but also record-warm water elsewhere, including the Mediterranean Sea, and the Atlantic and Indian oceans.

(MORE: What is El Niño and how could it affect the weather?)

Will 2026 be Earth's hottest year?

In short, it's a toss-up.

NOAA calculated 2026 is most likely to be the planet's second-warmest year, with only a 0.4% chance of a new record in 2026.

The European C3S report didn't give odds, but said if the last four months of 2026 close as warm as the last El Niño in 2023, this year "would be close to that of 2024, the current warmest year on record."

Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather was much more bullish, estimating a 75% chance that 2026 will set a new global record.

Despite what could be a record-strength El Niño, there's usually a lag between the heat released from this warm water and air temperatures. The recent trend has shown it's the year after the El Niño peaks that ends up being the planet's record-warmest.

That happened with the most recent El Niño three years ago. That El Niño peaked in late 2023, which set the planet's warmest year. But the year after leapfrogged 2023 as the current record-warm year.

So if 2026 doesn't set the record, it looks likely that 2027 will do so.

Each of Earth's 10 warmest years since 1850 has occurred since 2015, according to NOAA.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

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