We’re facing the possibility of a record-strength El Niño — and it could be reaching your dinner table.

El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others. Both of these extremes can damage crops and livestock, reducing food production.

When supply falls, prices rise and food becomes less affordable — meaning you could feel it in your wallet at future trips to the grocery store.

Here are a few of the foods and products that may be affected the most.

Coffee

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says El Niño presents challenges to next year’s production.

The outlook for Brazil, one of the biggest producers of coffee across the globe, is good for the 2026-27 coffee harvest as of now. 

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But the end of the 2026-27 harvest and the entire 2027-28 coffee cycle could look very different — especially since the worst of the weather could impact the flowering period.

Coffee from Costa Rica faces El Niño challenges ahead, too.

Chocolate

Africa provides more than 70% of the world's cocoa and producers there are also threatened by El Niño.

The world’s top producer, the Ivory Coast, is expected to see their output drop by a fifth. El Niño intensifies yearly Harmattan winds, which dry out topsoil and cause pods to fall.

Despite strong exports of cocoa this year, the Ivory Coast has decided to start to slow sales due to El Niño concerns.

In Ghana, El Niño could intensify torrential rains, which have damaged crops and increased the plant-killing black pod disease.

Chocolate tends to feel price swings faster than most groceries, making it one to watch.

Bananas

In Colombia, banana production is reliant on rainfall — but El Niño spells a reduction in this, resulting in small bunches of fruit.

Close monitoring will be required for bananas in Ecuador, where El Niño conditions enforce plant-health risks from black sigatoka and Fusarium.

Sugar

Brazil, India and Thailand together account for approximately 70% of global sugar exports. In India and Thailand, El Niño can reduce rainfall, while in Brazil the inverse can be true — but in both places sugar crops could hurt from that.

Sugarbeet yield forecasts in the European Union are also looking less than favorable due to persistent hot and dry conditions.

(MORE: Blueberry shortage? El Niño may be to blame)

In August, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s sugar price index reached its highest level since June 2025.

Palm oil

Palm oil can be found in everything from baked goods to peanut butter to pizza.

In Indonesia, one of the largest palm oil producers across the globe, El Niño-related dry weather creates the possibility for production to drop by 1 to 2 million tons.

Effects to palm oil prices face a 12- to 16-month lag, so it’s something you could see in 2027 or 2028.

Rice

Rice has already had a rough year. It’s a thirsty crop that requires a lot of water, and several countries where it is grown have had a very hot and dry year, compounded by challenges with fertilizer, fuel and transportation costs.

Now is the worst time for an especially strong El Niño, which could add another layer of difficulty for farmers.

(MORE: Prepare your home, bank account and grocery cart for El Niño)

More than half the world’s population depends on rice to survive. And globally, rice production is set to decline for the first time in a decade, according to the USDA.

Since rice is traded less often and several countries keep most of what they grow to be eaten at home, prices can change fast because of limited exporters.

Rice prices have already begun to reflect this in some places. At major Southeast Asian export hubs, they climbed about 15% earlier this year.

Wheat

Wheat production is forecast by the USDA to be down in many places: 23% in Brazil, 8% in Europe, and it will hit its lowest levels in the U.S. since 1970.

With a study linking severe water scarcity to 74% of annual wheat price fluctuations and El Niño increasing drought in some areas, this spells more trouble.

Fish

A major consequence of an El Niño is the loss of commercially important species where they traditionally occur, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Changes in ocean temperatures may be reflected in where certain species move to.

El Niño could affect entire supply chains. Fishmeal and fish oil are used as feed in both agriculture for livestock and aquaculture for farmed fish like salmon and shrimp.

(MORE: How El Niño could be the next big supply chain nightmare)

Peru's anchovy fishery supplies roughly 20% of the world's fishmeal and fish oil.

Off the Peruvian coast, when water warms sharply, anchovy schools move deeper and disperse. Peru's government closes or delays fishing seasons to prevent damage to the following year's stock.

The 2023 El Niño resulted in more than $1.4 billion in lost fishmeal and fish oil export sales for Peru — so similar impacts could be felt this time, too.

Beef

Beef prices have already been on the rise this year due to shrinking cattle numbers — prices jumped 9% over 12 months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And in some places, El Niño will be a big determining factor in the road ahead.

Take Washington: almost half of the state, 47%, is experiencing moderate drought, according to NOAA. A strong El Niño could mean a warmer, drier winter on the way there.

Earlier this year, in order to protect their core breeding herd, Australian farmers sold cattle in record numbers amid an ongoing drought that El Niño threatens to worsen.

Food costs expected to generally rise across the board

We've seen this before: The last major El Niño in 2016 contributed to an estimated $327 million in agricultural production losses, according to the World Bank. 

And a 2023 analysis by the European Central Bank concluded that a strong El Niño could push global food commodity prices higher for up to two years.

(MORE: El Niño poised to 'rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record,' NOAA warns)

But what remains to be seen is just how intense this “super” El Niño is and just how badly that will affect food production — and costs for you at home.

Content writer Ada Wood enjoys exploring the stories that science and climate teach us about our natural world and how it influences the way we live in it.