The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been the least active season in over 75 years, but there is an area we're watching for possible development the next few days.

Where is it now?

This small area of low pressure is over 300 miles east of Bermuda.

Disorganized thundershowers are being affected by some northerly wind shear, blowing those showers away from the swirl of low pressure.

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The National Hurricane Center is calling this low "Invest 98L," a naming convention they use to identify systems of interest and allow higher-resolution computer forecast models to be run on them.

(MORE: What is an Invest?)

What could happen?

This low is expected to loaf around the central Atlantic Ocean the next few days, drifting southward a bit.

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While it's experiencing wind shear now, it's in a pocket where relatively shear lower.

The challenge it faces is that once it drifts farther south, it could face even more wind shear. You can see this in the map below in the pink and maroon colors south of the "X" and blob denoting the system.

Wind shear is hostile for tropical systems trying to develop, as well as active storms and hurricanes.

So the bottom line is this system isn't a threat to the U.S. or Caribbean, even if it becomes Tropical Storm Fay. If you're in or traveling to Bermuda, stay up to date on the progress of this system.

(MORE: Hurricane season maps tracker: cones, water temps and more)

El Niño's role in this hurricane season

The intensifying El Niño has been by far the largest contributor to the way this hurricane season has unfolded.

Stronger El Niños typically increase wind shear — or changes in wind speed and direction — in the Atlantic Basin. This increase in wind shear can shred storms before they even develop or weaken ones that do.

Since July, wind shear from the Caribbean Sea to just off the west coast of Africa has been the strongest on record for that time of year since 1979, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach.

It was this combination of wind shear and dry air that spelled the quick demise of Tropical Storm Dolly in late August. It has also squashed other tropical waves moving westward off Africa that often give rise to storms and hurricanes this time of year.

And in mid-September, that wind shear is still acting like a giant wall, squashing any development from the Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic.

(MORE: Your guide for everything El Niño)