El Niño is already impacting hurricane season. And global rainfall and a historic El Niño are likely ahead by the end of the year. NOAA released its latest outlook and status update.

What has changed

• Waters have warmed to an impressive 2°C above average in the eastern Pacific, meaning that a very strong El Niño (or super) is here.
• "There is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says. The previous record is 2.5°C warmer than average for any three months.

• El Niño is expected to be very strong through the fall and winter.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every three to four years. You can see the warming off the west coast of South America on the gif below.

But this one isn't your garden-variety El Niño.

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European models released at the beginning of the month caused many meteorologists to drop their jaws. And the European models had company.

Not only is this El Niño on pace for a record-strong event, but it could also smash previous records. Many computer model forecasts suggest it will eventually become the strongest El Niño in modern records sometime later this year.

(MORE: Historic super El Niño looms)

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Why does this matter?

So what does warm ocean water near the equator have to do with your weather?

While El Niño is only one influence on global weather, its heat transferred to the atmosphere can have a significant impact on weather patterns around the world from summer through fall, winter and spring.

And the stronger the El Niño, the more likely you'll see its typical weather impacts, such as a wet southern U.S. in winter or drought in Australia and Indonesia.

Fires in Indonesia are already being attributed to sinking, warming air associated with El Niño.

Earth also just tied its hottest month on record, aided by El Niño.

How is it impacting hurricane season?

Stronger El Niños often leave a thumbprint on hurricane seasons, both in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

On the Atlantic side, a strong El Niño often produces higher wind shear, especially over the Caribbean Sea. We have a full explanation of wind shear here, if you're interested.

Wind shear is one enemy of hurricanes and can even rip systems apart before they can become tropical storms.

You can see this record-strong wind shear in the Caribbean on the map below, highlighted in the box. Systems are finding small areas of more favorable winds elsewhere, as Tropical Storm Cristobal did earlier this week in the north Atlantic.

Stronger El Niños also produce more sinking air over the Atlantic Basin than usual.

Sinking air dries out and suppresses showers and thunderstorms, the basic building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.

But it's having the opposite effect in the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical activity in both the eastern and western Pacific basins has been near to above average so far this season. We've had two Category 5 Pacific storms recently, Hurricane Genevieve and Super Typhoon Dolphin.

One way you can see this is in the graph below. The ACE index not only counts the number of storms, but also takes into account how strong and long-lasting they are. The higher the index, the more active the season.

The western Pacific has had nearly twice as much activity – or ACE – compared to average. Meanwhile, the Atlantic has seen one-quarter of its average activity.

So, think of this like a seesaw. The Pacific is more active, the Atlantic is not.

Big winter impacts likely ahead

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive.

Remember those European models that we mentioned earlier. If those come to fruition, this is what this winter could look like:

We'll have our own first stab at the fall outlook later this week.

Hawaii can also suffer from rainier winters before drying out significantly in the year after El Niño.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest. That means that your heating bill won't be as steep this year.