El Niño is strengthening fast and is starting to knock on the door of the long-forecast super El Niño status as the atmosphere is responding to rapidly warming waters. The end of hurricane season and the upcoming winter will be affected.

Here's what's changed

El Niño has two different components that we, as scientists, watch. And the first is one that you should monitor, too.

1. The ocean has now warmed to 1.4 degrees Celsius above average. That's up from 0.7 degrees Celsius on June 11, and by oceanography standards, that's El Niño rapid intensification. These are weekly updates, but when this number is sustained at or above 2.0 degrees Celsius, we'll get to "super" El Niño. An El Niño of this strength is likely to directly impact you, and those impacts are expected later this year. We'll explain how later in this article.
2. Pressure is decreasing and thunderstorm activity is increasing in the Central Pacific. This is the atmosphere's response to the warming waters. Air across the eastern and central Pacific is increasingly rising. On the flip side, thunderstorm activity is suppressed over Indonesia — another classic signal of El Niño. This is the response that will bring impacts around the globe later this year.

Forecasts for the rest of the year

A super El Niño is coming by the end of the year — 23 out of the 26 models used for these forecasts agree with this.

That strength could be reached by late this summer or early this fall and is expected to peak by late fall. Indications are that this El Niño will be at least as strong as the five previous super El Niños in the cool seasons of 2015-16, 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73.

Super El Niños have also been documented in 1888-89 and 1877-78.

El Niño is expected overwhelmingly to continue into spring 2027.

Where could the 2026-27 El Niño land in the record books?

Most computer forecast models suggest this El Niño could become one of the most intense on record.

Models continue to trend deeper and deeper into the "super" El Niño category.

In their early July update, the ECMWF suggested that water temperatures will top 3 degrees Celsius above average, possibly as early as September before peaking this autumn or early winter.

The strongest El Niño saw water temperatures reach 2.5 degrees above average in the fall and winter 1982-83. More recently, from November-January 2015-16, water temperatures reached 2.4 degrees Celsius above average.

Other models top it out as slightly less super (but still 2 degrees above average), but not necessarily record-breaking.

What are the potential impacts?

Hurricane season

A stronger El Niño tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes.

While the shredding of Tropical Storm Bertha is not likely due to El Niño, we will likely see more highly disrupted systems this year than usual.

We have seen major prediction entities like our own and Colorado State University reduce the expected number of tropical storms and hurricanes this season due to the amplifying El Niño.

(July Forecast Update: Hurricane season likely to be quieter)

Most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. That's not always the case, as the 2023 season illustrated.

Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños.

(IN DEPTH: Strong El Niño hurricane seasons | Effects on tracks | Caribbean travel impacts)

Winter

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive.

Hawaii can also suffer from rainier winters before drying out significantly in the year after El Niño.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest. That means that your heating bill won't be as steep this year.

Super El Niños often have impressively warm temperatures across the Midwest, as shown below.

(IN DEPTH: What a super El Niño means for winter in your state)

Global precipitation

El Niño's impacts typically extend around the globe. Those are highlighted on the map below.

For example, parts of Africa, India, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Caribbean and northern South America trend markedly drier during El Niño.

On the other hand, warm water and lighter trade winds typically set the table for heavier rain in parts of Ecuador and Peru. Parts of eastern Africa, central Asia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay are also usually wetter than average during El Niño.

(MORE: What El Niño means for marine life)

Global temperatures

One impact we're highly confident about is a spike in global temperatures during this El Niño. At the risk of oversimplifying, all this extra equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, and all large swaths of drier conditions allow plentiful sunshine to heat the surface.

As the graph below nicely illustrates, the large majority of El Niños have triggered temperature spikes, including the last "non-super" El Niño in 2023.

(MORE: Could El Niño make 2026 the warmest on record?)

The previous super El Niño crushed previous global temperature records in 2015 and 2016. Those two years remain among the top 10 warmest years for the planet, all of which have occurred since 2015.

Given last year was the planet's third warmest year, it seems like a slam dunk that new heat records will be set in 2026, possibly again in 2027.

From a climate change angle, this is worrisome.

A December 2025 study found super El Niño events can drive sudden "climate regime shifts" in both temperatures and precipitation, and that this effect could be increasing in a warming world.