You've probably heard this before: NOAA is expecting this year to be one of the top five hottest on record. But this year's ranking could be impacted by El Niño's warming.

Here's the latest

The January–June global surface temperature departure was the third-highest in the 177-year record at +1.14 degrees Celsius (or +2.05°F), surpassed only by the corresponding periods in 2024 and 2025. Check the graphic below to see where this year stands.

The black line is the current year, and at this point of the year, only 2024 and 2025 were warmer.

NOAA states that "it is virtually certain that 2026 will rank among the 10 warmest years on record, and very likely that it will place within the top five."

It is because numerous continents recorded top 10 warmest starts to the year on average. Africa recorded a top three warmest first half of the year. Asia recorded their fifth warmest. Not far behind them was North America with an eighth warmest. And finally, South America and Oceania saw a top 10 warmest start to the year.

Although Europe, the Arctic and Antarctic also experienced warmer-than-average conditions during this six-month period, none ranked within their respective top 10.

It may be surprising that Europe didn't see a top 10 warmest January to June. But despite seeing record heat waves in May and June, the temperatures for the remainder of the year were low enough to pull them out of a top 10 warmest first half of the year.

The likelihood of seeing our hottest year

Even though NOAA slightly leans toward the idea that this will be the fourth-warmest year on record, they are almost 100% confident that this year will be a top 5 year. The bar graph below shows where they stand at this time of the year, in terms of probability:

Warmest areas

The Southwest and southern Rockies are the regions that have experienced the warmest conditions so far this year. Amplified by a March heat wave and a winter of little to no snow, mild temperatures were widespread.

That resulted from an expansive bubble of high pressure aloft known as a heat dome, one as strong as you'd expect in June, not March.

(FULL RECAP: Record March 2026 heat wave)

Las Vegas, downtown Los Angeles, Phoenix, Flagstaff, Salt Lake City, Amarillo and Albuquerque all saw their hottest start to the year.

Many more cities saw their top 10 hottest start to the year, including Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Denver and Boise.

El Niño's influence

El Niño was officially declared by NOAA in early June, but the impact of this climatological pattern will continue to ramp up as the pattern intensifies.

(MORE: El Niño's latest status report | Everything you need to know about El Niño)

El Niño also has impacts on global temperatures.

The two warmest years on record, 2023 and 2024, had an El Niño occurring for at least part of the year. And most El Niño years tend to be warmer than the years around them.

Also, there is something else that is interesting to note with the graphic below (yes, it is the same graph from earlier in the article). In 2023, after the El Niño began, the year actually jumped from the 6th warmest year on record to the second warmest after the El Niño began.

With 2026's El Niño looking to be one of the warmest on record, this year could follow a similar trend.

The global pattern continues

The top three warmest years were 2023, 2024 and 2025. In fact, of the 15 warmest years on record, only one of them occurred before 2010. The world's temperature has steadily been increasing, and the map below shows just how dire the situation has become.