A strong El Niño is going to be in place through this winter, and that is likely to influence how much snow the slopes in different regions of the U.S. pick up this ski season.

As we move deeper into autumn, the data is becoming more consistent, not less. What looked likely back in summer now looks close to certain — and the strength of the signal has, if anything, firmed up.

What is El Niño, and how strong could it get?

It is a periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean that tends to throw the Earth's weather out of whack.

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As we enter September, waters are nearly 2 degrees Celsius above average. By the time ski slopes open in the U.S. in October, water temperatures could be several tenths of a degree warmer than this.

This meets the threshold for "super" El Niño status.

(Your one-stop El Niño guide: Everything you need to know right here)

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For skiers, snowboarders and winter thrill-seekers alike, a strong El Niño means you might have to head south.

Why does this strip of warm ocean water matter?

El Niño and its cool counterpart La Niña can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away in the United States and around the world. Since most El Niños peak in late fall or winter, they can have their strongest influence in the colder months of the year — exactly when the rest of us are checking snow reports and booking lift tickets.

(WATCH: A Frisbee team takes the slopes)

In general, the classic El Niño winter tends to be wetter than average through much of the southern U.S., from parts of California to the Carolinas, due in part to a stronger, more southern jet stream track.

Across much of the northern U.S., a stronger El Niño tends to produce a warmer winter. In other words: less snow, and less time on the mountain — whether you're carving turns, riding a board or just chasing powder days.

Because no two El Niños are alike and the intensity of each could matter for impacts, we also examined strong El Niño seasons specifically. One drawback is a limited sample size of only eight strong El Niño seasons since 1950.

What was most interesting in our investigation was how much the strength of the El Niño mattered. Across the southern tier — the zone that tends to run snowier in any El Niño winter, as the composite maps above show — a strong event didn't just repeat the pattern. It amplified it.

That's the reason this winter is worth planning around. It isn't just that El Niño is coming. It's that a strong one tends to push the southern storm track harder — which is what puts the Sierra, Utah and Colorado in play.

(El Niño impacts winter: Super El Niño could flip winter temperatures upside down)

What does that mean for snowfall?

We examined snowfall data since 1950 for about four dozen U.S. locations for which sufficient data exists and snowfall is typical at least once a year.

We grouped these seasonal snowfall totals into El Niño, La Niña and neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) seasons. For most of the locations, there were 26 El Niño, 25 La Niña and 22 neutral seasons of snowfall data.

The map below shows El Niño's impact over the 73-year period.

You can see a north-south split. Winters are generally at least somewhat snowier than average across the South, but less snowy than usual across the northern tier.

Past seasons

The most recent El Niño in the 2023-2024 winter brought the lack of winter-like temperatures across most of the Northern Tier. Eight states from North Dakota to New Hampshire saw their warmest winter on record. Frequent thaws and rainfall kept the Green and White Mountains less snowy than usual.

El Niño's typical southern rainy spell didn't materialize, leaving most of the South without much, if any, snow. The warm winter and mixed bag of precipitation for the Midwest left them with less snow, too.

While still a strong El Niño, that winter saw a slightly weaker warming in the Pacific than we're anticipating this winter — and than what was seen in 2015-16, when record-setting warmth hit New England and temperatures ran well above average across the Northern Plains and Midwest.

To see how strong El Niño winters typically play out, we pulled data from NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory and built composites of December-February and March-May precipitation across the four strongest El Niño events since 1950. Here's what that history looks like:

Averaged across those four strongest El Niños, the pattern holds through the whole season: wet across California and the southern tier, near or below normal across the Northwest and northern Rockies. That's the setup that could put Colorado back on track after last year.

(MORE: The 6 best ski resorts for beginners in the United States)

How the regions stack up

Sierra and Colorado are positioned to benefit most. A strong, southward-shifted storm track favors both — a meaningful reversal for Colorado after last year's shortfall.

Utah is the wild card. It tends to sit closer to the dividing line between the wetter south and drier north, which makes it the hardest region to call this far out.

The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies get the short end. A warmer, drier northern tier is the most consistent signal in the entire El Niño record.

The Northeast likely lands close to average — a comedown after last year's standout run, but not necessarily a bad one.

The mid-October ENSO update, which will confirm or soften the strong El Niño signal.

Our full winter outlook follows shortly after, so it's worth holding off on any major bookings until that update is out.