Breaking down the El Niño myths you shouldn't fall for
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With the hype of a strong El Niño, you may hear some things that simply are not true. We correct some of the biggest myths here.

Jonathan Erdman
ByJonathan Erdman
5 days agoUpdated: September 19, 2026, 7:50 am EDTPublished: September 19, 2026, 7:00 am EDT

The weather myths about El Niño you’re probably getting wrong

El Niño can trigger weather impacts around the world, but it isn't necessarily everything it's attributed to in the media.

El Niños have happened for thousands of years. But they really entered into the national media during the historic 1982-83 record-setting event, and exploded into pop culture during the 1997-98 event. (Chris Farley, anyone?)

Let's set the record straight on a few myths you may have heard before.

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(MORE: Comprehensive El Niño coverage)

Myth: The 'El Niño storm'

Don't get stressed out if you read or hear about any "El Niño storm."

El Niño is not a storm like the type of weather system that can bring a day or two of heavy rain to California or heavy snow to the East Coast.

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Instead, it's a periodic warming of water over weeks and months near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

That tongue of warmer water eventually influences weather patterns, especially from hurricane season into winter.

But you can't really say, "El Niño caused this storm." And since it's not a singular storm, it's not correct to say, "El Niño will arrive in 'Anytown.'"

El Nino September 2026

Ocean temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius on Sept. 15, 2026, utilizing NOAA's OISST v2.1 dataset, compared to a 1991-2020 average.

(NOAA)

Myth: All El Niños are the same

Like anything else in the ocean and atmosphere, there can be various shapes and intensities of El Niño.

Some have more heating in the Central Pacific south of Hawaii, known as "El Niño Modoki." Others have the warmest water near the South America coast.

That matters because Modoki and more conventional El Niños can have different impacts on the weather around the globe.

El Nino La Nina since 1950 RONI

This graph shows the three-month relative oceanic Niño index from 1950 through August 2026. Dark orange indicates periods of El Niños. Dark blue show La Niñas.

(Data: NOAA/CPC)

Myth: Stronger El Niños have stronger impacts

El Niño is usually not the only driver of weather patterns, much like one economic factor isn't the be-all and end-all of the world's economy.

That's particularly true in winter.

Even with a strong El Niño, factors such as the polar vortex can either reinforce or interfere with the typical El Niño winter pattern for at least a period of weeks.

A stronger El Niño typically means there's a better chance of seeing those typical El Niño temperature and precipitation patterns, not that those will be more extreme.

(MORE: Winter outlook 2026-27)

Winter Outlook temperatures winter 2026-2027

December 2026 through February 2027 temperature outlook

Myth: El Niño means major flooding in California

El Niño first entered the national discussion when California was pummeled with a series of wet Pacific storms during the super El Niños of 1982-83 and 1997-98. So it's understandable why those old enough to remember the late 20th century immediately think of California when hearing about an El Niño.

But even a strong El Niño doesn't guarantee a siege of flooding in the Golden State.

The maps below show all strong El Niño winter season precipitation across the country. Notice the maps have the same general look, but there are key differences as well.

The last super El Niño in 2015-16 was drier than average in most of California except the far north.

California's significant floods from atmospheric river events can happen any year, whether El Niño, La Niña or neither is in place.

Only six of the state's 13 costliest flood years since 1950 have happened during an El Niño, according to California meteorologist and weather expert Jan Null.

The odds are tilted in favor of a wetter season, but those odds aren't 100%.

(MORE: Learn more about El Niño and what it means for you)

strong El Niño winter precipitation since 1950

These maps show how far above and below average precipitation has been each December through February period during a strong El Niño has been from the 1957 through 2016.

(NOAA/NCEI)

Myth: There are more weather disasters during El Niño

While there are certainly areas prone to drought and heavy rain globally in stronger El Niños, it's not necessarily true there are more weather disasters during El Niños.

For example, the graph below shows U.S. weather disasters responsible for at least $1 billion in damage since 1980, according to Climate Central. The damage cost estimates have been adjusted for inflation to 2026.

While you can see some smaller spikes in 1983 and 1998 associated with those super El Niños, the 2014 and 2015 tallies didn't stand out compared to years before and after.

The bottom line is weather disasters happen every year, regardless of El Niño.

(MORE: Is the weather getting worse, or does it just feel that way?)

US billion dollar disasters 1980 through August 2026

The time series of billion-dollar weather-related disasters in the U.S. from 1980 through August 2026. The event type is color-coded and cost is adjusted for inflation to 2026 dollars.

(Climate Central)

Myth: El Niño only has adverse impacts

It isn't all bad news.

This El Niño is strong enough to put a major dent in the Atlantic hurricane season, especially in the Caribbean Sea.

If you're looking for relief from high utility bills, this warmer winter could be what you're looking for in the northern U.S.

And following last season's historically paltry snowfall, the potential for heavier snow in California, the Southwest and southern Rockies this season could help dent the region's long-term drought.

(MORE: 5 ski resorts for this El Niño winter season)

cost of electricity

(John Brueske via Getty Images)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

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