October marks the seasonal shift toward the first accumulating snow of the season in parts of the nation's northern tier and Mountain West, while many other areas typically wait until November or December. This year’s super El Niño could change that timeline in some parts of the country.

How do meteorologists define the first accumulating snow? Snow totaling 0.1 inches or more is what qualifies as accumulating snow, also known as measurable snow. It can't just be flurries flying through the air, or snow that falls and immediately melts on contact with the ground.

Average first snowfall 

The map below uses data from the National Weather Service to show the month when the average first accumulating snow falls, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020.

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These are just averages. Any given season can produce its first snowfall either very early or very late, depending on the weather pattern.

Most of the South isn’t included in the data shown on this map because most of the region doesn’t see accumulating snow every year. When it does, it usually happens in January and February.

Before we dive in, there's an important disclaimer to give. This section is an outline of the averages for the typical year. But with El Niño, this year will look different, so we outline what to expect this winter specifically in the section that follows.

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Midwest: The northern tier, from northern Michigan to the western Dakotas, often sees accumulating snow arrive in October.

In November, much of the Ohio Valley, the rest of the Great Lakes, the mid-Mississippi Valley and the Central Plains join the ranks. Parts of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri and the Lower Ohio Valley typically have to wait until December to see their first accumulating flakes.

Northeast, mid-Atlantic: October typically brings the first snow to the mountains of northern New England and the Adirondacks.

Most of the rest of the interior Northeast joins in during November, while the Interstate 95 corridor from New York City to Virginia typically waits until December to see its first accumulating snowfall of the season.

West: Snow can fall over the highest peaks of the Rockies even in summer, but September is the typical timing from the higher elevations of western Montana into the Colorado Rockies.

Otherwise, October typically heralds the arrival of the season's first flakes in the lower elevations of Montana, Wyoming, the Wasatch, Colorado's foothills and mountain valleys and the mountains of northern New Mexico.

November first snow is typical in the plains of southeast Colorado into the rest of northern New Mexico, northern Arizona (Flagstaff), portions of the Great Basin and the interior Northwest.

The threat of snow is not usually a factor in places like Seattle and Portland, Oregon, until late December.

El Niño could affect the first snowfall this year

A strong El Niño is expected to play a major role in shaping the upcoming winter and will likely influence the first snowfalls across the country. 

In general, the classic El Niño winter tends to be wetter than average through much of the southern U.S., from parts of California to the Carolinas, due in part to a stronger, more southern jet stream track.

Meanwhile, across much of the northern U.S., El Niño tends to produce a warmer winter, which could lead to less snow. 

(MORE: Our complete coverage of El Niño)

The map below shows El Niño's impact on snowfall over a 73-year period across nearly four dozen U.S. locations that typically receive at least some snowfall. 

There is a clear north-south split. Winters are generally at least somewhat snowier than average across the southern tier, but less snowier than usual across the northern tier.

Temperature outlooks for the coming months can also give a clue as to when to expect the first snowfall of the season. Our temperature outlooks for October, November and December can be seen in the maps at the end of this article.

(MORE: Your 2026-27 winter outlook)

We just outlined what a typical year looks like — now here's your snowfall forecast for this winter specifically.

Northeast, mid-Atlantic: Limited access to cold air could lead to a mix of precipitation types and thin, inconsistent snow conditions, though late winter may become more favorable for some solid snow. Expect the first accumulating snowfall to be much later than average. 

Midwest: The Midwest is looking at generally poor snowfall prospects. Expect the first accumulating snowfall to be later than normal. 

West: Colorado and Utah should expect consistent, often heavy snowfall events throughout the winter. A typical October or November first snowfall is likely. 

However, in the Northern Rockies, moisture availability is expected to be more of an issue, which could mean a typical to slightly later first snowfall.

California and Nevada could see numerous significant snowfall events this winter, and an earlier-than-average first snowfall could be possible. 

South: The South doesn’t see snow every winter, but a wetter-than-average winter means there is a better chance for snow in January or February this year than a year without El Niño.